ArticleBMC infectious diseases2024
Study of the driving factors of the abnormal influenza A (H3N2) epidemic in 2022 and early predictions in Xiamen, China.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Associations between sunshine and influenza or influenza-like illness, a systematic review and meta-analysis.International journal of biometeorology · 2026Pooled it
- Epidemiological and virological characteristics of influenza in Zhejiang Province, China: A 15-year surveillance study.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Article
- Spatial-temporal epidemiological characteristics of influenza and its correlation with meteorological factors in Gansu province based on 24 solar terms.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Strain Matching of Seasonal Influenza Vaccines and Emergence of Neuraminidase Inhibitor Resistance in China from 2015 to 2025.Vaccines · 2026Article
- Forecasting influenza activity based on internet retrieval behavior and meteorological data in four megacities of China.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Prediction, lag and mixture effects of meteorology and pollutants on the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Jining City, China.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Unraveling meteorologically influenced recurrence and sequential infection risks among influenza, mumps, scarlet fever, and hand-foot-and-mouth disease: evidence from Shenzhen, China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Generalized additive model integrating multi-source data for short-term influenza forecasting in Shenzhen, China (2023-2025).Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Effect of environmental exposure on the economic burden of influenza and pneumonia: case study of a cold industrial city in China.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Epidemiological characteristics of pediatric respiratory pathogens and their association with climate in Wuxi, Chongqing, China.New microbes and new infections · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal Risk Assessment of H5 Avian Influenza in China: An Interpretable Machine Learning Approach to Uncover Multi-Scale Drivers.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2025Article
- Prediction of outpatient visits for allergic rhinitis using an artificial intelligence LSTM model - a study in Eastern China.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Improving influenza prediction in Quanzhou, China: an ARIMAX model integrated with meteorological drivers.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Correction: Study of the driving factors of the abnormal influenza A (H3N2) epidemic in 2022 and early predictions in Xiamen, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
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19 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundInfluenza outbreaks have occurred frequently these years, especially in the summer of 2022 when the number of influenza cases in southern provinces of China increased abnormally. However, the exact evidence of the driving factors involved in the prodrome period is unclear, posing great difficulties for early and accurate prediction in practical work.
methodsIn order to avoid the serious interference of strict prevention and control measures on the analysis of influenza influencing factors during the COVID-19 epidemic period, only the impact of meteorological and air quality factors on influenza A (H3N2) in Xiamen during the non coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) period (2013/01/01-202/01/24) was analyzed using the distribution lag non-linear model. Phylogenetic analysis of influenza A (H3N2) during 2013-2022 was also performed. Influenza A (H3N2) was predicted through a random forest and long short-term memory (RF-LSTM) model via actual and forecasted meteorological and influenza A (H3N2) values.
resultsTwenty nine thousand four hundred thirty five influenza cases were reported in 2022, accounting for 58.54% of the total cases during 2013-2022. A (H3N2) dominated the 2022 summer epidemic season, accounting for 95.60%. The influenza cases in the summer of 2022 accounted for 83.72% of the year and 49.02% of all influenza reported from 2013 to 2022. Among them, the A (H3N2) cases in the summer of 2022 accounted for 83.90% of all A (H3N2) reported from 2013 to 2022. Daily precipitation(20-50 mm), relative humidity (70-78%), low (≤ 3 h) and high (≥ 7 h) sunshine duration, air temperature (≤ 21 °C) and O
conclusionThe extreme weather conditions of sustained low temperature and wet rain may have been important driving factors for the abnormal influenza A (H3N2) epidemic. A low vaccination rate, new mutated strains, and insufficient immune barriers formed by natural infections may have exacerbated this epidemic. Meteorological forecast values can aid in the early prediction of influenza outbreaks. This study can help relevant departments prepare for influenza outbreaks during extreme weather, provide a scientific basis for prevention strategies and risk warnings, better adapt to climate change, and improve public health.
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