Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39350073›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2024

Assessing vaccine strategies for mpox outbreak in New York City using an age-structure model.

Zixiao Xiong, Ling Xue, Xuezhi Li, Yanfen Zhang

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Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Zixiao XiongCollege of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, China.
Ling XueCollege of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, China. lxue@hrbeu.edu.cn.
Xuezhi LiSchool of Mathematics and Information Science, Henan Normal University, Xinxiang, China.
Yanfen ZhangCollege of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, China.

Funding

Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities 3072020CFT2402National Natural Science Foundation of China 12171116
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundSince May 7 2022, mpox has been endemic in many countries which has attracted the attention of health authorities in various countries and made control decisions, in which vaccination is the mainstream strategy. However, the shortage of vaccine doses and the reduction of protective efficacy have led to unresolved issues such as vaccine allocation decisions and evaluation of transmission scale.

methodsWe developed an epidemiological model to describe the prevalence of the mpox virus in New York City and calibrated the model to match surveillance data from May 19 to November 3, 2022. Finally, we adjusted the model to simulate and compare several scenarios of non-vaccination and pre-pandemic vaccination.

resultsRelative to the status quo, if vaccination is not carried out, the number of new infections increases to about 385%, and the transmission time will be extended to about 350%, while if vaccinated before the epidemic, the number of new infections decreases to 94.2-96%.

conclusionsThe mpox outbreak in New York City may be linked to the Pride event. However, with current vaccine coverage, there will be no more large-scale outbreaks of mpox, even if there is another similar activity. For areas with limited vaccines, priority is given to high-risk groups in the age group [34-45] years as soon as possible.

Indexed as

Disease OutbreaksAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge FactorsChildChild, PreschoolEpidemiological ModelsFemaleHumansInfantInfant, NewbornInfluenza VaccinesMaleMiddle AgedInfluenza VaccinesAge-structured modelBasic reproduction numberMpoxSensitivity analysisVaccination strategies

Identifiers

PMID39350073
PMCPMC11441002

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.