ArticleFuture healthcare journal2024
Predictive modelling of the UK physician associate supply: 2014-2038.
Article in Future healthcare journal, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Introduction: The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan aims for 10,000 physician associates (PAs, formerly physician assistants) by 2036/7. This article uses three modelling approaches to project the UK PA supply from a baseline of 2014-2021 through to 2038 to forecast the profession's growth. Methods: The number of cClinically available PAs' (cPAs; qualified PAs either working clinically or seeking clinical employment) was estimated using raw data from the 2014-2021 Faculty of Physician Associates censuses. This provided baseline data for all models (linear regression (LRM), exponential regression (ERM) and time-series forecast (TSFM)). Attrition, using data from other healthcare professions, was also modelled. Results: Discussion: This article permits a wider view of potential PA numbers, with broad agreement between the LRM and the TSFM. It appears that future PA demand will be met, but factors such as attrition could impede this. Attrition itself may be mitigated through adequate resourcing, appropriate support mechanisms, and the development of a career structure. Professional regulation and legislation will further support PAs to work to their potential, subject to appropriate patient safety measures.
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Registered trials
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