Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39344276›Full record

ArticleMovement disorders clinical practice2024

Validation of a 5-Year Prognostic Model for Parkinson's Disease.

Joana Ribeiro, Marta Camacho, Kirsten M Scott, Julia C Greenland, Jonathan R Evans, David P Breen, Ruwani S Wijeyekoon, Roger A Barker, Caroline H Williams-Gray

Abstract readValidation Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Movement disorders clinical practice, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Joana RibeiroDepartment of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0009-5780-4767
Marta CamachoDepartment of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Kirsten M ScottDepartment of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Julia C GreenlandDepartment of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Jonathan R EvansNottingham University Hospital NHS Trust, Nottingham, UK.
David P BreenCentre for Clinical Brain Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Ruwani S WijeyekoonDepartment of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Roger A BarkerDepartment of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Caroline H Williams-GrayDepartment of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2648-9743

Funding

Cambridge Centre for Parkinson-PlusCure Parkinson's TrustJohn and Lucille Van Geest FoundationMedical Research Council MC_PC_17230Medical Research Council MR/W029235/1National Institute for Health and Care Research NIHR203312Parkinson's UKWellcome - MRC Cambridge Stem Cell Institute, University of Cambridge 203151/Z/16/ZWellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundA simple prognostic model was previously developed to predict the probability of recently-diagnosed patients reaching negative outcomes (postural instability, dementia or death) in a 5-year period.

objectivesTo validate this model in an independent cohort and establish utility at later time points.

methodsValidation was performed using data collected in an incident cohort at baseline, 2 and 4 years. Predicted negative outcome probabilities were compared to actual 5-year outcomes.

resultsThe model, based on age, MDS-UPDRS axial score and 60-second animal fluency, predicted poor 5-year outcome when applied at baseline, (area under the curve (AUC) 0.80), 2 years (AUC 0.82) and 4 years (AUC 0.71). Power calculations showed that selecting a subgroup with prognostic score >0.5 reduced the sample size required for a disease-modifying trial.

conclusionsThis 5-year prognostic model has good accuracy when employed up to 4 years from diagnosis and may help stratification for disease-modifying trials.

Indexed as

Parkinson DiseaseAgedCohort StudiesFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisSeverity of Illness IndexneuroepidemiologyParkinson's diseaseprognostic model

Identifiers

PMID39344276
PMCPMC11542283

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.