ArticleBMC pulmonary medicine2024
The temporal trend of tuberculosis burden in an aging population in China: a secondary data analysis from the GBD 2019.
Article in BMC pulmonary medicine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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7 citing papers in PubMed.
- The impact of modifiable social determinants on tuberculosis incidence: insights from a Bayesian spatiotemporal and counterfactual analysis.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis epidemiological trends from 2005 to 2024 and forecasts for 2035 in Sichuan Province, China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- A Clinical Prediction Model for Atypical Tuberculosis Manifestations Among Older Adults.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2025Article
- Social activities and different intensities of physical activity among older adults in China: a population-based cohort study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Applying Multiple Analyses to Quantify Changes in the Global, Regional, and National Burden of Tuberculosis From 1990 to 2021 and the Forecast Until 2035.The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale · 2025Article
- Analysis of the trends and predictions of tuberculosis burden in China from 1990 to 2021 based on the GBD database.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Age-period-cohort analysis and prediction of tuberculosis trends in China-based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021 data.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe rapid population aging in China has been a big challenge to achieve the goal of ending the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic. This study aimed to describe the temporal trend of TB burden in China during 1990 ∼ 2019 and to evaluate the effect of age, period, and birth cohort on domestic TB burden, with a specific focus on the elderly.
methodsThe trends of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of TB among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) negative people were described using the data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Join-point regression model was applied to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of TB burden for different age groups. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was fitted for incidence and mortality, and relative risks (RR) were computed for each age group.
resultsIn 2019, the highest TB deaths (5.23 thousand, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 4.38 ∼ 6.17) and DALYs (155.18 thousand, 95%UI: 126.47 ∼ 190.55) were observed in the HIV-negative population aged 70 ∼ 74 years in China. The proportion of those aged ≥ 60 years in newly diagnosed TB patients without HIV coinfection increased from 23.82% in 1990 to 37.54% in 2019, while TB deaths rose from 48.70 to 68.64%. During the past 30 years, the AAPC of age-standardized mortality (-7.77, confidence interval [CI]: -8.44∼ -7.10) and DALYs (-7.48, 95% CI: -7.98∼ -6.97) among HIV-negative individuals have shown a decrease, while much slower in the age groups above 70-year-old. The period effect and cohort effect contributed to the decline of TB incidence and mortality, but the age effect led to increasing TB mortality, especially among the ages of 85 ∼ 89 years (RR = 4.59, 95% CI: 4.25 ∼ 4.95).
conclusionsThe burden of TB remains considerable in the elderly population in China. More actions should be taken to improve case finding and the quality of TB healthcare for this high-risk population.
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