ArticleBMC public health2024
An assessment of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, a retrospective post-mortem surveillance in 12 districts - Zambia, 2020-2022.
Article in BMC public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- A longitudinal study of antibody responses to endemic HCoV and novel SARS-CoV-2 among mother-child pairs in Zambia.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Impact of COVID-19 on place of death for disease-related causes: a population-based study in Nanchang, China.Scientific reports · 2025Observational
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9 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe number of COVID-19 deaths reported in Zambia (N = 4069) is most likely an underestimate due to limited testing, incomplete death registration and inability to account for indirect deaths due to socioeconomic disruption during the pandemic. We sought to assess excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Zambia.
methodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of monthly-death-counts (2017-2022) and individual-daily-deaths (2020-2022) of all reported health facility and community deaths at district referral health facility mortuaries in 12 districts in Zambia. We defined COVID-19 wave periods based on a sustained nationally reported SARS-CoV-2 test positivity of greater than 5%. Excess mortality was calculated as the difference between observed monthly death counts during the pandemic (2020-2022) and the median monthly death counts from the pre-pandemic period (2017-2019), which served as the expected number of deaths. This calculation was conducted using a Microsoft Excel-based tool. We compared median daily death counts, median age at death, and the proportion of deaths by place of death (health facility vs. community) by wave period using the Mann-Whitney-U test and chi-square test respectively in R.
resultsA total of 112,768 deaths were reported in the 12 districts between 2020 and 2022, of which 17,111 (15.2%) were excess. Wave periods had higher median daily death counts than non-wave periods (median [IQR], 107 [95-126] versus 96 [85-107], p < 0.001). The median age at death during wave periods was older than non-wave periods (44.0 [25.0-67.0] versus 41.0 [22.0-63.0] years, p < 0.001). Approximately half of all reported deaths occurred in the community, with an even greater proportion during wave periods (50.6% versus 53.1%, p < 0.001), respectively.
conclusionThere was excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Zambia, with more deaths occurring within the community during wave periods. This analysis suggests more COVID-19 deaths likely occurred in Zambia than suggested by officially reported numbers. Mortality surveillance can provide important information to monitor population health and inform public health programming during pandemics.
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