ArticleBMC infectious diseases2024
Space-time dynamics of the dengue epidemic in Brazil, 2024: an insight for decision making.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Environmental and epidemiological drivers of dengue forecasting across heterogeneous transmission settings in Brazil and Panama.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Early Warning Systems and Emergency Declarations During Brazil's Largest Dengue Outbreak.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2026Article
- Spatio-temporal forecasting of dengue in the Americas through hybrid mechanistic and data-driven models: Systematic review and meta-analysis.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Review
- Dengue forecasting and outbreak detection in Brazil using LSTM: integrating human mobility and climate factors.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Epidemiological and digital syndromic surveillance data on dengue, chikungunya, and SARI in Brazil.Scientific data · 2026Article
- Fulminant hepatitis secondary to dengue in pediatric patients: a series of four cases.Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de Sao Paulo · 2026Article
- Review
- Forecasting dengue across Brazil with LSTM neural networks and SHAP-driven lagged climate and spatial effects.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Geospatial clustering reveals dengue hotspots across Brazilian municipalities, 2024.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
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8 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundDengue is a vector-borne viral infection caused by the dengue virus transmitted to humans primarily by Aedes aegypti. The year 2024 has been a historic year for dengue in Brazil, with the highest number of probable cases ever registered. Herein, we analyze the temporal trend and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue cases in Brazil during the first nine epidemiological weeks (EW) of 2024.
methodsThis is an ecological study, including all probable cases of dengue in Brazil during the period, carried out in two steps: time series analysis to assess the temporal trend and spatial analysis to identify high-risk clusters.
results1,345,801 probable cases of dengue were reported. The regions with the highest increasing trend were the Northeast with an average epidemiologic week percent change (AEPC) of 52.4 (95% CI: 45.5-59.7; p < 0.001) and the South with 35.9 (95% CI: 27.7-44.5; p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant increasing trend in all states, except Acre (AEPC = -4.1; 95% CI: -16.3-10; p = 0.55), Amapá (AEPC = 1.3; 95% CI: -16.2-22.3; p = 0.9) and Espírito Santo (AEPC = 8.9; 95% CI: -15.7-40.6; p = 0.5). The retrospective space-time analysis showed a cluster within the Northeast, Central-West and Southeast regions, with a radius of 515.3 km, in which 1,267 municipalities and 525,324 of the cases were concentrated (RR = 6.3; p < 0.001). Regarding the spatial variation of the temporal trend, 21 risk areas were found, all of them located in Southeast or Central-West states. The area with the highest relative risk was Minas Gerais state, where 5,748 cases were concentrated (RR = 8.1; p < 0.001). Finally, a purely spatial analysis revealed 25 clusters, the one with the highest relative risk being composed of two municipalities in Acre (RR = 6.9; p < 0.001).
conclusionsWe described a detailed temporal-spatial analysis of dengue cases in the first EWs of 2024 in Brazil, which were mainly concentrated in the Southeast and Central-West regions. Overall, it is recommended that governments adopt public policies to control the the vector population in high-risk areas, as well as to prevent the spread of dengue fever to other areas of Brazil.
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