Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39332898›Full record

ArticleTobacco control2025

Economy-wide impact of a reduction in tobacco use in India.

Rijo M John, Badri Narayanan, Sumathi Chakravarthy, Sindhu Bharathi, Praveen Sinha, Vineet Gill Munish, Mark Goodchild

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Tobacco control, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Rijo M JohnRajagiri College of Social Sciences, Cochin, Kerala, India rmjohn@gmail.com.ORCID 0000-0002-4525-6507
Badri NarayananBoston College, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA.
Sumathi ChakravarthyInfinite Sum Modelling LLC, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Sindhu BharathiInfinite Sum Modelling LLC, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Praveen SinhaWorld Health Organization, New Delhi, India.
Vineet Gill MunishWorld Health Organization, New Delhi, India.
Mark GoodchildWorld Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-1826-1343

Funding

World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPublic policy measures aimed at regulating tobacco use should consider the net gains for the nation, as the tobacco sector contributes to employment and tax revenue while also imposing substantial economic burden on the country. This study investigates the economy-wide impact of reducing tobacco consumption in India through the implementation of fiscal measures.

methodsThe study uses a computable general equilibrium model based on the Global Trade Analysis Project model and database and augments the same with several country-specific information on tobacco products, to examine the macroeconomic impact of a targeted reduction in the consumption of bidis, cigarettes and smokeless tobacco by 10% by the year 2026 through the adoption of fiscal measures.

resultsThe model results suggest that the targeted reduction in consumption may result in a 0.14% reduction in the gross domestic product (GDP) and a 0.44% reduction in overall employment in the economy. However, after accounting for the averted premature deaths due to tobacco use, the results indicate a net 0.22% increase in GDP and a net increase in employment of about 1.36 million jobs (or 0.29% of the labour force) over 5 years. Further, the tax increase measures proposed in this model to achieve the targeted reduction in consumption would generate an additional US$2774 million in revenues to the exchequer.

conclusionThe impact of targeted prevalence reduction of tobacco use is a win-win for the country considering its positive macroeconomic impacts in terms of net increases in both GDP as well as employment.

Indexed as

Tobacco ProductsTobacco UseCommerceEmploymentGross Domestic ProductHumansIndiaModels, EconomicTaxesEconomicsLow/Middle income countryPublic policyTaxation

Identifiers

PMID39332898
PMCPMC12703278

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.