ArticleMemorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz2024
Climate change-induced degradation of expert range maps drawn for kissing bugs (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) and long-standing current and future sampling gaps across the Americas.
Article in Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Chagas Disease in the 21st Century: Global Spread, Ecological Shifts, and Research Frontiers.Biology · 2025Review
- Biodiversity science and biosurveillance are fellow travelers.Bioscience · 2025Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundKissing bugs are the vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease (CD). Despite their epidemiological relevance, kissing bug species are under sampled in terms of their diversity and it is unclear what biases exist in available kissing bug data. Under climate change, range maps for kissing bugs may become less accurate as species shift their ranges to track climatic tolerance.
objectivesQuantify inventory completeness in available kissing bug data. Assess how well range maps are at conveying information about current distributions and potential future distributions subject to shift under climate change. Intersect forecasted changes in kissing bug distributions with contemporary sampling gaps to identify regions for future sampling of the group. Identify whether a phylogenetic signal is present in expert range knowledge as more closely related species may be similarly well or lesser understood.
methodsWe used species distribution models (SDM), specifically constructed from Bayesian additive regression trees, with Bioclim variables, to forecast kissing bug distributions into 2100 and intersect these with current sampling gaps to identify priority regions for sampling. Expert range maps were assessed by the agreement between the expert map and SDM generated occurrence probability. We used classical hypothesis testing methods as well as tests of phylogenetic signal to meet our objectives.
findingsExpert range maps vary in their quality of depicting current kissing bug distributions. Most expert range maps decline in their ability to convey information about kissing bug occurrence over time, especially in under sampled areas. We found limited evidence for a phylogenetic signal in expert range map performance. MAIN
conclusionsExpert range maps are not a perfect account of species distributions and may degrade in their ability to accurately convey distribution knowledge under future climates. We identify regions where future sampling of kissing bugs will be crucial for completing biodiversity inventories.
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