ArticleeLife2024
Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.
Article in eLife, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.
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Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed.
- Measuring population immunity against influenza using individual antibody titres: a multicountry, retrospective observational study.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2026Observational
- Repeated influenza vaccination results in blunting rather than back-boosting of antibody responses against A(H3N2) antigens.Research square · 2026Article
- Limited evidence of AI superiority in seasonal influenza vaccine strain selection.Nature medicine · 2026Article
- T-cell-mediated immunity to influenza A (H2N3): implications for caccine efficacy and cross-subtype protection.Archives of microbiology · 2026Review
- Infectious disease outcomes of NASA's health stabilization program.NPJ microgravity · 2026Article
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- Childhood immune imprinting shapes cohort and period influenza mortality.Science advances · 2026Article
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- The impact of viral and host factors on the influenza A virus transmission bottleneck.PLoS pathogens · 2026Article
- Update on Influenza.The American journal of the medical sciences · 2026Review
- Next-generation viral detection through AI-enhanced nanotechnology: advances, challenges, and future directions.Frontiers in molecular biosciences · 2026Article
- Influenza A/H3N2 epidemiology in England during the 2025 to 2026 season: a mathematical modelling study.Communications health · 2026Article
- Multiplex serology reveals age-specific immunodynamics of respiratory pathogens in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.Nature communications · 2025Article
- H3 hemagglutinin proteins optimized for 2018 to 2022 elicit neutralizing antibodies across panels of modern influenza A(H3N2) viruses.Journal of immunology (Baltimore, Md. : 1950) · 2025Article
- Analysis of common respiratory pathogens and epidemiological trends during peak influenza seasons in Tengzhou.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Breadth of influenza A antibody cross-reactivity varies by virus isolation interval and subtype.Nature microbiology · 2025Article
- Competition between transmission lineages mediated by human mobility shapes seasonal influenza epidemics in the US.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Role of Respiratory Viruses in Severe Acute Respiratory Failure.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Review
- Review
- Patterns of the Circulation of Influenza in a Targeted Jordanian Subpopulation from November 2021 to April 2023.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
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26 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here, we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997-2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection ynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.