ArticleNature communications2024
Abrupt increase in Arctic-Subarctic wildfires caused by future permafrost thaw.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Permafrost thaw has enlarged the burned area proportion from naturally-ignited wildfires in Arctic-boreal regions.National science review · 2026Article
- Vegetation browning patterns under compound soil and atmospheric dryness in northern permafrost ecosystems.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Peat fires contribute disproportionately to Siberian fire carbon emissions.Science advances · 2026Article
- Environmental Impacts from Projected Permafrost Thaw in Alaska: Defining Knowledge Gaps, Data Needs, and Research Priorities.Weather, climate, and society (Print) · 2025Article
- Increasing boreal fires reduce future global warming and sea ice loss.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Recent Advances in the Observation and Modeling of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions, Cloud Feedbacks, and Earth's Energy Imbalance: A Review.Current pollution reports · 2025Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Unabated 21st-century climate change will accelerate Arctic-Subarctic permafrost thaw which can intensify microbial degradation of carbon-rich soils, methane emissions, and global warming. The impact of permafrost thaw on future Arctic-Subarctic wildfires and the associated release of greenhouse gases and aerosols is less well understood. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of the effect of future permafrost thaw on land surface processes in the Arctic-Subarctic region using the CESM2 large ensemble forced by the SSP3-7.0 greenhouse gas emission scenario. Analyzing 50 greenhouse warming simulations, which capture the coupling between permafrost, hydrology, and atmosphere, we find that projected rapid permafrost thaw leads to massive soil drying, surface warming, and reduction of relative humidity over the Arctic-Subarctic region. These combined processes lead to nonlinear late-21st-century regime shifts in the coupled soil-hydrology system and rapid intensification of wildfires in western Siberia and Canada.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.