Prognostic model for predicting recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma patients with high systemic immune-inflammation index based on machine learning in a multicenter study.

Introduction: This study aims to use machine learning to conduct in-depth analysis of key factors affecting the recurrence of HCC patients with high preoperative systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) levels after receiving ablation treatment, and based on this, construct a nomogram model for predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) of patients. Methods: This study included clinical data of 505 HCC patients who underwent ablation therapy at Beijing You'an Hospital from January 2014 to January 2020, and accepted 65 HCC patients with high SII levels from Beijing Ditan Hospital as an external validation cohort. 505 patients from Beijing You'an Hospital were divided into low SII and high SII groups based on the optimal cutoff value of SII scores. The high SII group was further randomly divided into training and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio. eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), random survival forest (RSF), and multivariate Cox regression analysis, were used to explore the factors affecting the post-ablation RFS of HCC patients. Based on the identified key factors, a nomogram model were developed to predict RFS in HCC patients, and their performance were evaluated using the concordance index (C index), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The optimal cutoff value for nomogram scores was used to divide patients into low- and high-risk groups, and the effectiveness of the model in risk stratification was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curves. Results: This study confirmed that age, BCLC stage, tumor number, and GGT level were independent risk factors affecting RFS in HCC patients. Based on the selected risk factors, an RFS nomogram was successfully constructed. The C-index, ROC curve, calibration curve, and DCA curve each demonstrated the discrimination, accuracy, and decision-making utility of the nomogram, indicating that it has good predictive performance. KM curve revealed the nomogram could significantly differentiate patient populations with different recurrence risk. Conclusion: We developed a reliable nomogram that can accurately predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS for HCC patients with high SII levels following ablation therapy.