Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39313745›Full record

ArticleNature aging2024

Probabilistic inference of epigenetic age acceleration from cellular dynamics.

Jan K Dabrowski, Emma J Yang, Samuel J C Crofts, Robert F Hillary, Daniel J Simpson, Daniel L McCartney, Riccardo E Marioni, Kristina Kirschner, Eric Latorre-Crespo, Tamir Chandra

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature aging, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed.

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  16. Deep learning to quantify the pace of brain aging in relation to neurocognitive changes.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Jan K Dabrowski *School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID 0009-0006-5373-7999
Emma J Yang *MRC Human Genetics Unit, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Samuel J C CroftsMRC Human Genetics Unit, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7496-082X
Robert F HillaryCentre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2595-552X
Daniel J SimpsonMRC Human Genetics Unit, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8431-7384
Daniel L McCartneyCentre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3242-0360
Riccardo E MarioniCentre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4430-4260
Kristina KirschnerCancer Research UK Scotland Institute, Glasgow, UK.
Eric Latorre-CrespoMRC Human Genetics Unit, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK. eric.latorrecrespo@glasgow.ac.uk.
Tamir ChandraMRC Human Genetics Unit, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK. chandra.tamir@mayo.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-7935-317X

Funding

Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 104036/Z/14/ZWellcome Trust 226831/Z/22/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The emergence of epigenetic predictors was a pivotal moment in geroscience, propelling the measurement and concept of biological aging into a quantitative era; however, while current epigenetic clocks show strong predictive power, they are data-driven in nature and are not based on the underlying biological mechanisms driving methylation dynamics. We show that predictions of these clocks are susceptible to several confounding non-age-related phenomena that make interpretation of these estimates and associations difficult. To address these limitations, we developed a probabilistic model describing methylation transitions at the cellular level. Our approach reveals two measurable components, acceleration and bias, which directly reflect perturbations of the underlying cellular dynamics. Acceleration is the proportional increase in the speed of methylation transitions across CpG sites, whereas bias corresponds to global changes in methylation levels. Using data from 15,900 participants from the Generation Scotland study, we develop a robust inference framework and show that these are two distinct processes confounding current epigenetic predictors. Our results show improved associations of acceleration and bias with physiological traits known to impact healthy aging, such as smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively. Furthermore, a genome-wide association study of epigenetic age acceleration identified seven genomic loci.

Indexed as

AgingDNA MethylationEpigenesis, GeneticAgedCpG IslandsFemaleGenome-Wide Association StudyHumansMaleMiddle AgedModels, Statistical

Identifiers

PMID39313745
PMCPMC11485233

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.