Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39305450›Full record

ArticleJournal of clinical monitoring and computing2025

Practical prognostic tools to predict the risk of postoperative delirium in older patients undergoing cardiac surgery: visual and dynamic nomograms.

Chernor Sulaiman Bah, Bongani Mbambara, Xianhai Xie, Junlin Li, Asha Khatib Iddi, Chen Chen, Hui Jiang, Yue Feng, Yi Zhong, Xinlong Zhang and 5 more

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Article in Journal of clinical monitoring and computing, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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4 · The record

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PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Chernor Sulaiman Bah *School of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China.
Bongani Mbambara *School of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China.
Xianhai Xie *Department of Pharmacy, Guangxi Academy of Medical Sciences and the People's Hospital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Nanning, China.
Junlin Li *School of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China.
Asha Khatib IddiSchool of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China.
Chen ChenDepartment of Pharmacy, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
Hui JiangHengyang Medical School, University of South China, Hengyang, China.
Yue FengDepartment of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
Yi ZhongDepartment of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
Xinlong ZhangDepartment of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
Huaming XiaNanjing Xiaheng Network System Co., Ltd, Nanjing, China.
Libo YanJiangsu Kaiyuan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd, Nanjing, China.
Yanna SiDepartment of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China. siyanna@163.com.
Juan ZhangDepartment of Neurology, Yuhua Branch of Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Yuhua Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China. zhangjuan_1@126.com.
Jianjun ZouSchool of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China. zoujianjun100@126.com.ORCID 0000-0003-0886-3153

Funding

Jiangsu Pharmaceutical Association H202108, A2021024, Q202202, and JY202207Nanjing Medical Science and Technical Development Foundation ZKX22030National Natural Science Foundation of China 81873954, 82173899Six Talent Peaks Project of Jiangsu WSW-106
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposePostoperative Delirium (POD) has an incidence of up to 65% in older patients undergoing cardiac surgery. We aimed to develop two dynamic nomograms to predict the risk of POD in older patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

methodsThis was a single-center retrospective cohort study, which included 531 older patients who underwent cardiac surgery from July 2021 to June 2022 at Nanjing First Hospital, China. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to identify the significant predictors used when constructing the models. We evaluated the performances and accuracy, validated, and estimated the clinical utility and net benefit of the models using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), the 10-fold cross-validation, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

resultsA total of 30% of the patients developed POD, the significant predictors in the preoperative model were ASA ( p < 0.001 OR = 3.220), cerebrovascular disease (p < 0.001 OR = 2.326), Alb (p < 0.037 OR = 0.946), and URE (p < 0.001 OR = 1.137), while for the postoperative model they were ASA (p = 0.044, OR = 1.737), preoperative MMSE score (p = 0.005, OR = 0.782), URE (p = 0.017 OR = 1.092), CPB duration (p < 0.001 OR = 1.010) and APACHE II (p < 0.001, OR = 1.353). The preoperative and postoperative models achieved satisfactory predictive performances, with AUC values of 0.731 and 0.799, respectively. The web calculators can be accessed at https://xxh152.shinyapps.io/Pre-POD/ and https://xxh152.shinyapps.io/Post-POD/ .

conclusionWe established two nomogram models based on the preoperative and postoperative time points to predict POD risk and guide the flexible implementation of possible interventions at different time points.

Indexed as

Cardiac Surgical ProceduresDeliriumNomogramsPostoperative ComplicationsAgedAged, 80 and overChinaFemaleHumansLogistic ModelsMalePrognosisReproducibility of ResultsRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsCardiac surgeryOlder patientsPostoperative deliriumPre-and postoperative modelsRisk prediction

Identifiers

PMID39305450

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.