ArticleJAMA network open2024
Projections of Extreme Temperature-Related Deaths in the US.
Article in JAMA network open, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Systematic review and narrative synthesis of behavioral interventions to improve heat-related illness prevention in community and occupational populations.BMC public health · 2025Pooled it
- Reducing healthcare emissions in the United States in the era of federal environmental deregulation: established and emerging mitigation opportunities and concomitant benefits.BMC global and public health · 2026Review
- Critical Temperature Thresholds for Identifying Vulnerability to Heat-Related Excess Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2026Article
- Sometimes missing the heat: the risk of underestimating extreme heat days with daily maximum heat index approximation.International journal of biometeorology · 2025Article
- Temperature and Emergency Department Visits: Present-Day Associations and Future Projections.Research square · 2025Article
- Short-Term Effects of Extreme Heat, Cold, and Air Pollution Episodes on Excess Mortality in Luxembourg.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- Regional Variability of Extreme Heat and Cold Risk Among Dual-Eligible Individuals.JAMA health forum · 2025Article
- Descriptive analysis of municipal policies addressing shade in eight southwest and northeast states in the United States.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Importance: Extreme heat in the US is increasing due to climate change, while extreme cold is projected to decline. Understanding how extreme temperature along with demographic changes will affect population health is important for devising policies to mitigate the health outcome of climate change. Objective: To assess the burden of extreme temperature-related deaths in the contiguous US currently (2008-2019) and estimate the burden in the mid-21st century (2036-2065). Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used historical (1979-2000) daily mean temperatures to calculate monthly extreme heat (>97.5th percentile value) and extreme cold days (<2.5th percentile value) for all contiguous US counties for 2008 to 2019 (current period). Temperature projections from 20 climate models and county population projections were used to estimate extreme temperature-related deaths for 2036 to 2065 (mid-21st century period). Data were analyzed from November 2023 to July 2024. Exposure: Current monthly frequency of extreme heat days and projected mid-21st century frequency using 2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5, representing socioeconomic development with a lower emissions increase, and SSP5-8.5, representing higher emissions increase. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean annual estimated number of extreme temperature-related excess deaths. Poisson regression model with county, month, and year fixed effects was used to estimate the association between extreme temperature and monthly all-cause mortality for older adults (aged ≥65 years) and younger adults (aged 18-64 years). Results: Across the contiguous US, extreme temperature days were associated with 8248.6 (95% CI, 4242.6-12 254.6) deaths annually in the current period and with 19 348.7 (95% CI, 11 388.7-27 308.6) projected deaths in the SSP2-4.5 scenario and 26 574.0 (95% CI, 15 408.0-37 740.1) in the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The mortality data included 30 924 133 decedents, of whom 15 573 699 were males (50.4%), with 6.3% of Hispanic ethnicity, 11.5% of non-Hispanic Black race, and 79.3% of non-Hispanic White race. Non-Hispanic Black adults (278.2%; 95% CI, 158.9%-397.5%) and Hispanic adults (537.5%; 95% CI, 261.6%-813.4%) were projected to have greater increases in extreme temperature-related deaths from the current period to the mid-21st century period compared with non-Hispanic White adults (70.8%; 95% CI, -5.8% to 147.3%). Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found that extreme temperature-related deaths in the contiguous US were projected to increase substantially by mid-21st century, with certain populations, such as non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic adults, projected to disproportionately experience this increase. The results point to the need to mitigate the adverse outcome of extreme temperatures for population health.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.