Projections of Socioeconomic Costs for Individuals with Dementia in China 2020-2050: Modeling Study.

Background: Previous estimates on future socioeconomic costs of dementia in China are inconsistent, and the main drivers of these costs are unclear. Objective: This study projected future socioeconomic costs (healthcare, formal social care, and informal care costs) and value of quality adjusted life years (QALYs) lost to dementia in China and assessed drivers of socioeconomic costs. Methods: Based on our prior projection on dementia cases to 2050 by a Markov model, we forecasted future socioeconomic costs and the value of QALYs from a societal perspective, utilizing the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study and the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. In our main analysis, dementia incidence increased by 2.9% annually, while sensitivity analyses considered a flat or 1.0% annual decrease in the temporal trend of dementia incidence. Furthermore, we decomposed socioeconomic costs changes (2018 US$) into population growth, population aging, dementia prevalence and average socioeconomic costs per case. Results: The annual socioeconomic costs and value of QALYs lost to dementia will reach $1,233 billion and $702 billion by 2050. If dementia incidence stays constant or decreases by 1.0% annually, the costs and QALYs would respectively decrease by 34% or 43% in 2050. Informal care is currently, and projected to remain, the largest share of socioeconomic costs. Population aging and rising dementia prevalence will mainly drive the growth in socioeconomic costs through 2050. Conclusions: Dementia casts an increasingly large economic burden on Chinese society, mainly driven by fast aging population and growing dementia prevalence.