ArticleBMC infectious diseases2024
Early warning and predicting of COVID-19 using zero-inflated negative binomial regression model and negative binomial regression model.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Prior-guided factorization for reliable imputation of scRNA-seq data.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- From COVID-19 to monkeypox: a novel predictive model for emerging infectious diseases.BioData mining · 2024Article
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11 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundIt is difficult to detect the outbreak of emergency infectious disease based on the exiting surveillance system. Here we investigate the utility of the Baidu Search Index, an indicator of how large of a keyword is in Baidu's search volume, in the early warning and predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19.
methodsThe daily number of cases and the Baidu Search Index of 8 keywords (weighted by population) from December 1, 2019 to March 15, 2020 were collected and analyzed with times series and Spearman correlation with different time lag. To predict the daily number of COVID-19 cases using the Baidu Search Index, Zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used in phase 1 and negative binomial regression model was used in phase 2 and phase 3 based on the characteristic of independent variable.
resultsThe Baidu Search Index of all keywords in Wuhan was significantly higher than Hubei (excluded Wuhan) and China (excluded Hubei). Before the causative pathogen was identified, the search volume of "Influenza" and "Pneumonia" in Wuhan increased with the number of new onset cases, their correlation coefficient was 0.69 and 0.59, respectively. After the pathogen was public but before COVID-19 was classified as a notifiable disease, the search volume of "SARS", "Pneumonia", "Coronavirus" in all study areas increased with the number of new onset cases with the correlation coefficient was 0.69 ~ 0.89, while "Influenza" changed to negative correlated (r
conclusionThe Baidu Search Index could be used in the early warning and predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19, but the search keywords changed in different period. Considering the time lag from onset to diagnosis, especially in the areas with medical resources shortage, internet search data can be a highly effective supplement of the existing surveillance system.
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