Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39294438›Full record

ArticleBritish journal of cancer2024

Validation of the BOADICEA model for epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer risk prediction in UK Biobank.

Xin Yang, Yujia Wu, Lorenzo Ficorella, Naomi Wilcox, Joe Dennis, Jonathan Tyrer, Tim Carver, Nora Pashayan, Marc Tischkowitz, Paul D P Pharoah and 2 more

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in British journal of cancer, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Guideline
  2. Article
  3. Polygenic risk scores in cancer.Medizinische Genetik : Mitteilungsblatt des Berufsverbandes Medizinische Genetik e.V · 2026
    Article
  4. Review
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Xin YangCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. xy249@medschl.cam.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0037-3790
Yujia WuCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Lorenzo FicorellaCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Naomi WilcoxCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Joe DennisCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4591-1214
Jonathan TyrerCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3724-4757
Tim CarverCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Nora PashayanCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Marc TischkowitzDepartment of Medical Genetics, NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Paul D P PharoahDepartment of Computational Biomedicine, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8494-732X
Douglas F EastonCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2444-3247
Antonis C AntoniouCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.

Funding

Cancer Research UK 20861Cancer Research UK (CRUK) C12292/A20861Cancer Research UK (CRUK) PPRPGM-Nov20\100002
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe clinical validity of the multifactorial BOADICEA model for epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (EOC) risk prediction has not been assessed in a large sample size or over a longer term.

methodsWe evaluated the model discrimination and calibration in the UK Biobank cohort comprising 199,429 women (733 incident EOCs) of European ancestry without previous cancer history. We predicted 10-year EOC risk incorporating data on questionnaire-based risk factors (QRFs), family history, a 36-SNP polygenic risk score and pathogenic variants (PV) in six EOC susceptibility genes (BRCA1, BRCA2, RAD51C, RAD51D, BRIP1 and PALB2).

resultsDiscriminative ability was maximised under the multifactorial model that included all risk factors (AUC = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.66-0.70). This model was well calibrated in deciles of predicted risk with calibration slope=0.99 (95% CI: 0.98-1.01). Discriminative ability was similar in women younger or older than 60 years. The AUC was higher when analyses were restricted to PV carriers (0.76, 95% CI: 0.69-0.82). Using relative risk (RR) thresholds, the full model classified 97.7%, 1.7%, 0.4% and 0.2% women in the RR < 2.0, 2.0 ≤ RR < 2.9, 2.9 ≤ RR < 6.0 and RR ≥ 6.0 categories, respectively, identifying 9.1 of incident EOC among those with RR ≥ 2.0. DISCUSSION: BOADICEA, implemented in CanRisk ( www.canrisk.org ), provides valid 10-year EOC risks and can facilitate clinical decision-making in EOC risk management.

Indexed as

Biological Specimen BanksBRCA2 ProteinCarcinoma, Ovarian EpithelialOvarian NeoplasmsAdultAgedBRCA1 ProteinDNA-Binding ProteinsFallopian Tube NeoplasmsFanconi Anemia Complementation Group N ProteinFanconi Anemia Complementation Group ProteinsFemaleGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseHumansMiddle AgedPolymorphism, Single NucleotideBRCA1 ProteinBRCA1 protein, humanBRCA2 ProteinBRCA2 protein, humanBRIP1 protein, humanDNA-Binding ProteinsFanconi Anemia Complementation Group N ProteinFanconi Anemia Complementation Group ProteinsPALB2 protein, humanRAD51C protein, humanRNA Helicases

Identifiers

PMID39294438
PMCPMC11519606

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.