ArticleActa orthopaedica2024
Prognostic model development for risk of curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a prospective cohort study of 127 patients.
Article in Acta orthopaedica, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Prediction models for curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a systematic review with exploratory meta-analysis of discrimination.BMC musculoskeletal disorders · 2026Pooled it
- Effectiveness of nighttime vs full-time bracing in the treatment of moderate-grade adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a secondary analysis of the CONTRAIS trial.Acta orthopaedica · 2025Trial
- Use of pre-operative SRS-22r profiles to predict clinically meaningful improvement after AIS surgery: a detailed multivariable MCID analysis in 189 patients.Spine deformity · 2026Article
- Article
- Comprehensive scoliosis conservative rehabilitation for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: effects on spinal deformity, physical function, and quality of life, with a parallel mediation analysis of core muscle endurance and pulmonary function.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2026Article
- The Effects of the Schroth Method on the Cobb Angle, Angle of Trunk Rotation, Pulmonary Function, and Health-Related Quality of Life in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis: A Narrative Review.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Idiopathic Scoliosis Progression: Presenting Rib and Segmental Rib Index as Predictors-A Literature Review.Medical sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
background and purposeThe study's purpose was to develop and internally validate a prognostic survival model exploring baseline variables for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis curve progression.
methodsA longitudinal prognostic cohort analysis was performed on trial data (n = 135) including girls and boys, Cobb angle 25-40°, aged 9-17 years, remaining growth > 1 year, and previously untreated. Prognostic outcome was defined as curve progression of Cobb angle of > 6° prior to skeletal maturity. 34 candidate prognostic variables were tested. Time-to-event was measured with 6-month intervals. Cox proportional hazards regression survival model (CoxPH) was used for model development and validation in comparison with machine learning models (66.6/33.3 train/test data set). The models were adjusted for treatment exposure.
resultsThe final primary prognostic model included 127 patients, predicting progress with acceptable discriminative ability (concordance = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72-0.86). Significant prognostic risk factors were Risser stage of 0 (HR 4.6, CI 2.1-10.1, P < 0.001), larger major curve Cobb angle (HRstandardized 1.5, CI 1.1-2.0, P = 0.005), and higher score on patient-reported pictorial Spinal Appearance Questionnaire (pSAQ) (HRstandardized 1.4, CI 1.0-1.9, P = 0.04). Treatment exposure, entered as a covariate adjustment, contributed significantly to the final model (HR 3.1, CI 1.5-6.0, P = 0.001). Sensitivity analysis displayed that CoxPH maintained acceptable discriminative ability (AUC 0.79, CI 0.65-0.93) in comparison with machine learning algorithms.
conclusionThe prognostic model (Risser stage, Cobb angle, pSAQ, and menarche) predicted curve progression of > 6° Cobb angle with acceptable discriminative ability. Adding patient report of the pSAQ may be of clinical importance for the prognosis of curve progression.
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