Quantifying the importance of ontogeny and prey type in modeling top-down and bottom-up effects of an ectothermic predator.

Dietary decisions by predators can affect prey abundance and overall food web dynamics. Many predators do not forage on the same prey at the same frequency throughout their lives. Ontogenetic shifts in prey preference are not, however, often accounted for when modeling food web relationships, despite growing literature that suggests that stage specific dietary relationships may be an important consideration when modeling trophic interactions. We investigated the importance of considering size-structure of a predator population with ontogenetic diet shifts in evaluating relationships with prey response using a manipulative experiment with the brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) in Guam. After removing ~ 40% of the snake population via toxic mammal carrion, we measured the strength of the relationship between snake density and the response of two types of prey (lizards and mammals). We evaluated these relationships based on total population size or division of the population into stage specific size categories based on diet preference predictions. We hypothesized that the density of juvenile snakes would correlate more strongly with lizard detections, while adult snakes would better correlate to rodent detections. We also measured reproductive output following changes in rates of prey detection. As expected by known ontogenetic shifts in dietary preference, explicit stage-based models better predicted shifts in rates of observed prey items than did total predator density for both lizards and mammals. Additionally, rodent detections were predictive of one reproductive pulse from snakes, while lizard detections were not predictive or correlated. Our findings support that consideration of predatory species stage-based dietary preference can be meaningful for understanding food web dynamics, particularly when a predator has a broad diet or one that changes through time.