Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39284685›Full record

Observational studyThe British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners2024

GP working time and supply, and patient demand in England in 2015-2022: a retrospective study.

Rosa Parisi, Yiu-Shing Lau, Peter Bower, Katherine Checkland, Jill Rubery, Matthew Sutton, Sally Giles, Aneez Esmail, Sharon Spooner, Evangelos Kontopantelis

Abstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Teamwork and relational infrastructure: a qualitative study of modern UK general practice.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Counting general practitioners: a comparative repeat cross-sectional analysis of GPs in NHS general practice in England.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2026
    Article
  5. Understanding persistent GP turnover using work and personal characteristics: a retrospective observational study.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2026
    Observational
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Rosa ParisiDivision of Informatics, Imaging & Data Sciences, School of Health Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester.ORCID 0000-0002-0968-9153
Yiu-Shing LauHealth Organisation, Policy and Economics (HOPE) Group, Centre for Primary Care and Health Services Research, University of Manchester, Manchester.
Peter BowerDivision of Population Health, Health Services Research and Primary Care, University of Manchester, Manchester.ORCID 0000-0001-9558-3349
Katherine ChecklandHealth Organisation, Policy and Economics (HOPE) Group, Centre for Primary Care and Health Services Research, University of Manchester, Manchester.ORCID 0000-0002-9961-5317
Jill RuberyAlliance Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, Manchester.ORCID 0000-0001-9405-0073
Matthew SuttonHealth Organisation, Policy and Economics (HOPE) Group, Centre for Primary Care and Health Services Research, University of Manchester, Manchester.ORCID 0000-0002-6635-2127
Sally GilesNIHR Greater Manchester Patient Safety Translational Research Centre, University of Manchester, Manchester.ORCID 0000-0003-1623-6029
Aneez EsmailDivision of Population Health, Health Services Research and Primary Care, University of Manchester, Manchester.ORCID 0000-0001-7061-7434
Sharon SpoonerHealth Organisation, Policy and Economics (HOPE) Group, Centre for Primary Care and Health Services Research, University of Manchester, Manchester.ORCID 0000-0001-6965-3673
Evangelos KontopantelisDivision of Informatics, Imaging and Data Sciences; NIHR School for Primary Care Research, Division of Population Health, Health Services Research and Primary Care, School of Health Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester.ORCID 0000-0001-6450-5815

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundEnglish primary care faces a reduction in GP supply and increased demand.

aimTo explore trends in GP working time and supply, accounting for factors influencing demand for services. DESIGN AND

settingRetrospective observational study in English primary care between 2015 and 2022.

methodTrends in median GP contracted time commitment were calculated using annual workforce datasets. Three measures of demand were calculated at practice-level: numbers of patients; numbers of older patients (≥65 years); and numbers of chronic conditions using 21 Quality and Outcomes Framework disease registers. Multi-level Poisson models were used to assess associations between GP supply and practice demand, adjusted for deprivation, region, and year.

resultsBetween 2015 and 2022, the median full-time equivalent (FTE) of a fully qualified GP decreased from 0.80 to 0.69

conclusionPopulation demand per GP has increased, particularly in terms of chronic conditions. This increase is driven by several factors, including a reduction in GP contracted time commitments. Persistent deprivation gradients in GP supply highlight the need to recruit and retain GPs more equitably.

Indexed as

General PracticeHealth Services Needs and DemandPrimary Health CareAgedChronic DiseaseEnglandFemaleGeneral PractitionersHumansMaleRetrospective StudiesWorkloadgeneral practicehealth services researchprimary careworkforce

Identifiers

PMID39284685
PMCPMC11423349

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.