Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39284602›Full record

ArticleCMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne2024

Clinical evaluation of a machine learning-based early warning system for patient deterioration.

Amol A Verma, Therese A Stukel, Michael Colacci, Shirley Bell, Jonathan Ailon, Jan O Friedrich, Joshua Murray, Sebnem Kuzulugil, Zhen Yang, Yuna Lee and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  10. Theoretical applications of artificial intelligence in smart infusion pump technology: Expert panel insights.American journal of health-system pharmacy : AJHP : official journal of the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Amol A VermaSt. Michael's Hospital (Verma, Colacci, Bell, Ailon, Friedrich, Kuzulugil, Yang, Lee, Pou-Prom, Mamdani), Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Verma, Colacci, Ailon, Friedrich, Lee, Mamdani), and Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Verma, Stukel, Colacci, Murray, Mamdani), and Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology (Verma, Mamdani), University of Toronto; ICES Central (Stukel); Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy (Mamdani), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont. amol.verma@mail.utoronto.ca.
Therese A StukelSt. Michael's Hospital (Verma, Colacci, Bell, Ailon, Friedrich, Kuzulugil, Yang, Lee, Pou-Prom, Mamdani), Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Verma, Colacci, Ailon, Friedrich, Lee, Mamdani), and Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Verma, Stukel, Colacci, Murray, Mamdani), and Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology (Verma, Mamdani), University of Toronto; ICES Central (Stukel); Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy (Mamdani), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Michael ColacciSt. Michael's Hospital (Verma, Colacci, Bell, Ailon, Friedrich, Kuzulugil, Yang, Lee, Pou-Prom, Mamdani), Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Verma, Colacci, Ailon, Friedrich, Lee, Mamdani), and Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Verma, Stukel, Colacci, Murray, Mamdani), and Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology (Verma, Mamdani), University of Toronto; ICES Central (Stukel); Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy (Mamdani), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Shirley BellSt. Michael's Hospital (Verma, Colacci, Bell, Ailon, Friedrich, Kuzulugil, Yang, Lee, Pou-Prom, Mamdani), Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Verma, Colacci, Ailon, Friedrich, Lee, Mamdani), and Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Verma, Stukel, Colacci, Murray, Mamdani), and Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology (Verma, Mamdani), University of Toronto; ICES Central (Stukel); Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy (Mamdani), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Jonathan AilonSt. Michael's Hospital (Verma, Colacci, Bell, Ailon, Friedrich, Kuzulugil, Yang, Lee, Pou-Prom, Mamdani), Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Verma, Colacci, Ailon, Friedrich, Lee, Mamdani), and Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Verma, Stukel, Colacci, Murray, Mamdani), and Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology (Verma, Mamdani), University of Toronto; ICES Central (Stukel); Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy (Mamdani), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Jan O FriedrichSt. Michael's Hospital (Verma, Colacci, Bell, Ailon, Friedrich, Kuzulugil, Yang, Lee, Pou-Prom, Mamdani), Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Verma, Colacci, Ailon, Friedrich, Lee, Mamdani), and Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Verma, Stukel, Colacci, Murray, Mamdani), and Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology (Verma, Mamdani), University of Toronto; ICES Central (Stukel); Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy (Mamdani), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Joshua MurraySt. Michael's Hospital (Verma, Colacci, Bell, Ailon, Friedrich, Kuzulugil, Yang, Lee, Pou-Prom, Mamdani), Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Verma, Colacci, Ailon, Friedrich, Lee, Mamdani), and Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Verma, Stukel, Colacci, Murray, Mamdani), and Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology (Verma, Mamdani), University of Toronto; ICES Central (Stukel); Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy (Mamdani), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Sebnem KuzulugilSt. Michael's Hospital (Verma, Colacci, Bell, Ailon, Friedrich, Kuzulugil, Yang, Lee, Pou-Prom, Mamdani), Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Verma, Colacci, Ailon, Friedrich, Lee, Mamdani), and Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Verma, Stukel, Colacci, Murray, Mamdani), and Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology (Verma, Mamdani), University of Toronto; ICES Central (Stukel); Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy (Mamdani), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Zhen YangSt. Michael's Hospital (Verma, Colacci, Bell, Ailon, Friedrich, Kuzulugil, Yang, Lee, Pou-Prom, Mamdani), Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Verma, Colacci, Ailon, Friedrich, Lee, Mamdani), and Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Verma, Stukel, Colacci, Murray, Mamdani), and Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology (Verma, Mamdani), University of Toronto; ICES Central (Stukel); Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy (Mamdani), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Yuna LeeSt. Michael's Hospital (Verma, Colacci, Bell, Ailon, Friedrich, Kuzulugil, Yang, Lee, Pou-Prom, Mamdani), Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Verma, Colacci, Ailon, Friedrich, Lee, Mamdani), and Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Verma, Stukel, Colacci, Murray, Mamdani), and Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology (Verma, Mamdani), University of Toronto; ICES Central (Stukel); Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy (Mamdani), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Chloe Pou-PromSt. Michael's Hospital (Verma, Colacci, Bell, Ailon, Friedrich, Kuzulugil, Yang, Lee, Pou-Prom, Mamdani), Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Verma, Colacci, Ailon, Friedrich, Lee, Mamdani), and Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Verma, Stukel, Colacci, Murray, Mamdani), and Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology (Verma, Mamdani), University of Toronto; ICES Central (Stukel); Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy (Mamdani), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Muhammad MamdaniSt. Michael's Hospital (Verma, Colacci, Bell, Ailon, Friedrich, Kuzulugil, Yang, Lee, Pou-Prom, Mamdani), Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Verma, Colacci, Ailon, Friedrich, Lee, Mamdani), and Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Verma, Stukel, Colacci, Murray, Mamdani), and Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology (Verma, Mamdani), University of Toronto; ICES Central (Stukel); Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy (Mamdani), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe implementation and clinical impact of machine learning-based early warning systems for patient deterioration in hospitals have not been well described. We sought to describe the implementation and evaluation of a multifaceted, real-time, machine learning-based early warning system for patient deterioration used in the general internal medicine (GIM) unit of an academic medical centre.

methodsIn this nonrandomized, controlled study, we evaluated the association between the implementation of a machine learning-based early warning system and clinical outcomes. We used propensity score-based overlap weighting to compare patients in the GIM unit during the intervention period (Nov. 1, 2020, to June 1, 2022) to those admitted during the pre-intervention period (Nov. 1, 2016, to June 1, 2020). In a difference-indifferences analysis, we compared patients in the GIM unit with those in the cardiology, respirology, and nephrology units who did not receive the intervention. We retrospectively calculated system predictions for each patient in the control cohorts, although alerts were sent to clinicians only during the intervention period for patients in GIM. The primary outcome was non-palliative in-hospital death.

resultsThe study included 13 649 patient admissions in GIM and 8470 patient admissions in subspecialty units. Non-palliative deaths were significantly lower in the intervention period than the pre-intervention period among patients in GIM (1.6% v. 2.1%; adjusted relative risk [RR] 0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55-1.00) but not in the subspecialty cohorts (1.9% v. 2.1%; adjusted RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.63-1.28). Among high-risk patients in GIM for whom the system triggered at least 1 alert, the proportion of non-palliative deaths was 7.1% in the intervention period, compared with 10.3% in the pre-intervention period (adjusted RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.46-1.02), with no meaningful difference in subspecialty cohorts (10.4% v. 10.6%; adjusted RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.60-1.59). In the difference-indifferences analysis, the adjusted relative risk reduction for non-palliative death in GIM was 0.79 (95% CI 0.50-1.24).

interpretationImplementing a machine learning-based early warning system in the GIM unit was associated with lower risk of non-palliative death than in the pre-intervention period. Machine learning-based early warning systems are promising technologies for improving clinical outcomes.

Indexed as

Clinical DeteriorationHospital MortalityMachine LearningAgedEarly Warning ScoreFemaleHumansInternal MedicineMaleMiddle AgedPropensity ScoreRetrospective Studies

Identifiers

PMID39284602
PMCPMC11412734

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.