ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2024
Estimating future climate change impacts on human mortality and crop yields via air pollution.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Meteorologically Driven Changes in Future Global Air Quality: Physical and Monetized Impacts.Environmental science & technology · 2026Article
- Article
- In-feedFrontiers in physiology · 2026Article
- Estimating future climate change impacts on human mortality and crop yields via air pollution.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Future climate change may bring local benefits or penalties to surface air pollution, resulting from changing temperature, precipitation, and transport patterns, as well as changes in climate-sensitive natural precursor emissions. Here, we estimate the climate penalties and benefits at the end of this century with regard to surface ozone and fine particulate matter (PM[Formula: see text]; excluding dust and smoke) using a one-way offline coupling between a general circulation model and a global 3-D chemical-transport model. We archive meteorology for the present day (2005 to 2014) and end of this century (2090 to 2099) for seven future scenarios developed for Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The model isolates the impact of forecasted anthropogenic precursor emission changes versus that of climate-only driven changes on surface ozone and PM[Formula: see text] for scenarios ranging from extreme mitigation to extreme warming. We then relate these changes to impacts on human mortality and crop production. We find ozone penalties over nearly all land areas with increasing warming. We find net benefits due to climate-driven changes in PM[Formula: see text] in the Northern Extratropics, but net penalties in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere, where most population growth is forecast for the coming century.
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Registered trials
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