ArticleAdvances in experimental medicine and biology2024
Estimating the Real Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Kazakhstan: Factors Associated with Detection of the "True Infections".
Article in Advances in experimental medicine and biology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- An approach to assess the impact of measures mitigating burden associated with COVID-19 in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia).Scientific reports · 2026Article
- The burden of COVID-19 in primary care of Almaty, Kazakhstan, 2021-2022.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Outpatient pediatric care during the COVID-19 pandemic, Almaty, Kazakhstan 2021-2022.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic is ongoing worldwide, and various case and death numbers are being reported to track its spread. However, the number of actual cases is uncertain due to under-reporting. Using mortality data as a more reliable indicator, this study in Kazakhstan evaluated the extent of under-reporting and under-detection of COVID-19 cases from March 2020 to September 2022 using back-casting and capture-recapture methods. The results indicate that official case reporting in Kazakhstan significantly underestimates the number of infections by at least 50%. The study also suggests that improved testing capabilities may have led to a decrease in the percentage of unreported cases, however, early in the pandemic, Kazakhstan faced significant testing shortages. The study presents a mathematical model based on mortality data that highlights the severe under-reporting of COVID-19 cases in Kazakhstan and argues that understanding the true estimate of actual cases could aid in making informed decisions to end the pandemic.
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