Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39281725›Full record

ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Center2024

Nowcasting and forecasting global aging and cancer burden: analysis of data from the GLOBOCAN and Global Burden of Disease Study.

Lixi Li, Tianhao Shan, Di Zhang, Fei Ma

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the National Cancer Center, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 65 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
65citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

65 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Thieno[3,2-International journal of molecular sciences · 2026
    Review
  8. Association between financial toxicity and frailty among older patients with cancer: a cross-sectional study using COST and G8.Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer · 2026
    Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

5 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Lixi LiDepartment of Medical Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Tianhao ShanDepartment of Medical Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Di ZhangDepartment of Medical Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Fei MaDepartment of Medical Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the impact of global population aging on cancer epidemiology, with a focus on the incidence and mortality rates among individuals aged 60 years and above. Methods: We utilized open-source data, retrieving population age estimates from the United Nations Population Division website. The GLOBOCAN 2020 database provided estimates for cancer cases and deaths in 2020 and 2040, while the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database supplied estimates of new cancer cases worldwide from 2000 to 2019. Inclusion criteria considered individuals aged 60 years and over, focusing on the top five deadliest cancers. The cohort-component method was employed for population prediction, with age-specific incidence and mortality rates estimated for 2020 used to forecast the cancer burden. Results: In 2021, the global population aged over 60 years accounted for 13.7%, with Europe/North America and Australia/New Zealand having the highest proportions. The older population is predicted to reach 19.2% by 2040. In 2020, of the 19.3 million new cancer cases worldwide, 64% occurred in individuals aged 60 and above, contributing to 71.3% of cancer-related deaths. The five most common cancer sites were the lung, colorectum, prostate, breast, and stomach. Cancer incidence and deaths are projected to rise significantly among older individuals, reaching 20.7 million new cases and 12.7 million deaths by 2040. Older age, tobacco use, dietary factors, alcohol consumption, and high body mass index (BMI) were identified as major risk factors for various cancers in this demographic. Conclusions: This study reveals a significant rise in cancer incidence and mortality among the elderly due to global population aging. The urgency for targeted interventions in cancer prevention, screening, and treatment for older individuals is emphasized. Despite acknowledged limitations, these findings contribute valuable insights to inform strategies for managing cancer in the elderly amidst evolving demographic trends.

Indexed as

Cancer burdenDisability-adjusted life yearsGlobal agingPublic health

Identifiers

PMID39281725
PMCPMC11401500

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.