A predictive propensity measure to enter REM sleep.

Introduction: During sleep periods, most mammals alternate multiple times between rapid-eye-movement (REM) sleep and non-REM (NREM) sleep. A common theory proposes that these transitions are governed by an "hourglass-like" homeostatic need to enter REM sleep that accumulates during the inter-REM interval and partially discharges during REM sleep. However, markers or mechanisms for REM homeostatic pressure remain undetermined. Recently, an analysis of sleep in mice demonstrated that the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the amount of NREM sleep between REM bouts correlates with REM bout duration, suggesting that time in NREM sleep influences REM sleep need. Here, we build on those results and construct a predictive measure for the propensity to enter REM sleep as a function of time in NREM sleep since the previous REM episode. Methods: The REM propensity measure is precisely defined as the probability to enter REM sleep before the accumulation of an additional pre-specified amount of NREM sleep. Results: Analyzing spontaneous sleep in mice, we find that, as NREM sleep accumulates between REM bouts, the REM propensity exhibits a peak value and then decays to zero with further NREM accumulation. We show that the REM propensity at REM onset predicts features of the subsequent REM bout under certain conditions. Specifically, during the light phase and for REM propensities occurring before the peak in propensity, the REM propensity at REM onset is correlated with REM bout duration, and with the probability of the occurrence of a short REM cycle called a sequential REM cycle. Further, we also find that proportionally more REM sleep occurs during sequential REM cycles, supporting a correlation between high values of our REM propensity measure and high REM sleep need. Discussion: These results support the theory that a homeostatic need to enter REM sleep accrues during NREM sleep, but only for a limited range of NREM sleep accumulation.