ArticleEuropean spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society2024
Puberty changes the natural history of idiopathic scoliosis: three prediction models for future radiographic curve severity from 1563 consecutive patients.
Article in European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Current insights into circulating biomarkers and their potential for predicting adolescent idiopathic scoliosis progression.Frontiers in cell and developmental biology · 2026Review
- Curve Progression in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis with Cobb Angles Between 40 and 50 Degrees at the Late Stage of Skeletal Growth: A Minimum 5-Year Follow-Up Study.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
purposeUnderstanding idiopathic scoliosis (IS) natural history during growth is essential for shared decision-making between patients and physicians. We developed a retrospective model with the largest available sample in the literature and we aimed to investigate if using three peri-pubertal growth periods provides better prediction than a unique model.
methodsSecondary analysis of a previous study on IS natural history data from radiographs before and at the first consult. Three groups: BEFORE (age 6-10), AT (age 11-Risser 2) and AFTER (from Risser 3) the pubertal growth spurt. Available predictors: Cobb angle, curve type, sex, observation time, and Risser score. We used linear mixed-effects models to predict future Cobb angles in each group. We internally validated prediction accuracy with over 100 patients per group (3 to 5-fold cross-validation).
resultsWe included 1563 participants (275 BEFORE, 316 AFTER, 782 females and 190 males AT). Curves increased over time mostly in AT, importantly in BEFORE, but also in AFTER. All models performed better than the general one. In BEFORE, 74.2% of the predictions were within ± 5
conclusionIS curve severities increase differently during growth with puberty stages. Model accuracy increases when tailored by growth spurt periods. Our models may help patients and clinicians share decisions, identify the risk of progression and inform treatment planning.
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