ArticleBMC public health2024
Spatial and temporal analysis and forecasting of TB reported incidence in western China.
Article in BMC public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- A novel time-series modeling framework for predicting tuberculosis incidence in Sichuan, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal trends of neglected tropical disease hospitalizations in Ecuador over 25-years from 2000 to 2024.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal patterns, associated factors, and forecasting of pulmonary tuberculosis: a 19-year township-level case study in Zigong City, China.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Trends and spatial distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in China: a surveillance study.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Shijiazhuang, China 2010-2023.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTuberculosis (TB) remains an important public health concern in western China. This study aimed to explore and analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of TB reported incidence in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China and to construct the optimal models for prediction, which would provide a reference for the prevention and control of TB and the optimization of related health policies.
methodsWe collected monthly data on TB reported incidence in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China and used ArcGIS software to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of TB reported incidence. We applied the seasonal index method for the seasonal analysis of TB reported incidence and then established the SARIMA and Holt-Winters models for TB reported incidence in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China.
resultsThe reported incidence of TB in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China showed apparent spatial clustering characteristics, and Moran's I was greater than 0 (p < 0.05) over 8 years during the reporting period. Among them, Tibet was the hotspot for TB incidence in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China. The reported incidence of TB in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China from 2004 to 2018 showed clear seasonal characteristics, with seasonal indices greater than 100% in both the first and second quarters. The optimal models constructed for TB reported incidence in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China all passed white noise test (p > 0.05).
conclusionsAs a hotspot of reported TB incidence, Tibet should continue to strengthen government leadership and policy support, explore TB intervention strategies and causes. The optimal prediction models we developed for reported TB incidence in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China were different.
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