ArticleBMC public health2024
Mortality risk predicts global, local, and individual patterns of human reproduction.
Article in BMC public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Timing of adverse childhood experiences shapes epigenetic ageing and life-history outcomes.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Reproductive Outcomes in Women Born With Low Birth Weight, Preterm or Small for Gestational Age: A Population-Based Register Study.BJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology · 2026Article
- Autistic-Like Traits in Members of the General Population and Mate Retention Tactics: The Mediation of Attachment Styles and Reproductive Strategies.Evolutionary psychology : an international journal of evolutionary approaches to psychology and behaviorArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundHuman reproductive dynamics in the post-industrial world are typically explained by economic, technological, and social factors including the prevalence of contraception and increasing numbers of women in higher education and the workforce. These factors have been targeted by multiple world governments as part of family policies, yet those policies have had limited success. The current work adopts a life history perspective from evolutionary biology: like most species, human populations may respond to safer environments marked by lower morbidity and mortality by slowing their reproduction and reducing their number of offspring. We test this association on three levels of analysis using global, local, and individual data from publicly available databases.
resultsData from over 200 world nations, 3,000 U.S. counties and 2,800 individuals confirm an association between human reproductive outcomes and local mortality risk. Lower local mortality risk predicts "slower" reproduction in humans (lower adolescent fertility, lower total fertility rates, later age of childbearing) on all levels of analyses, even while controlling for socioeconomic variables (female employment, education, contraception).
conclusionsThe association between extrinsic mortality risk and reproductive outcomes, suggested by life history theory and previously supported by both animal and human data, is now supported by novel evidence in humans. Social and health policies governing human reproduction, whether they seek to boost or constrain fertility, may benefit from incorporating a focus on mortality risk.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.