Trial reportNature communications2024
Omicron COVID-19 immune correlates analysis of a third dose of mRNA-1273 in the COVE trial.
Trial report in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04470427 (A Phase 3, Randomized, Stratified, Observer-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Immunogenicity of mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine in Adults Aged 18 Years and Older), which is not on this map. Cited by 13 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
A Phase 3, Randomized, Stratified, Observer-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Immunogenicity of mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine in Adults Aged 18 Years and Older
Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Immune correlates analysis in NextCOVE trial for a next-generation mRNA-1283 COVID-19 vaccine.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Trial
- Neutralizing antibody immune correlates in COVAIL trial recipients of an mRNA second COVID-19 vaccine boost.Nature communications · 2025Trial
- Omicron COVID-19 immune correlates analysis of a third dose of mRNA-1273 in the COVE trial.Nature communications · 2024Trial
- Long-term safety and effectiveness of mRNA-1273 vaccine in adults: COVE trial open-label and booster phases.Nature communications · 2024Trial
- Immune correlates of risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in children: a prospective, community-based cohort study.Nature communications · 2026Article
- AI-driven big data analysis and predictive modeling of infectious disease immunity: from correlates to causal, multiscale understanding.Archives of microbiology · 2026Review
- Correlates of severe and delta COVID-19 in a phase 3 trial of the AZD1222 vaccine.NPJ vaccines · 2026Article
- IgG4 Neutralization and Sustained Total IgG Fc-Effector Functions Following Repeated SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination with mRNA-1273.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2026Article
- Variant-specific antibody correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron symptomatic and overall infections.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Neutralizing and binding antibodies are a correlate of risk of COVID-19 in the CoVPN 3008 study in people with HIV.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Ethnic Comparisons of Spike-Specific CD4+ T Cells, Serological Responses, and Neutralizing Antibody Titers Against SARS-CoV-2 Variants.Vaccines · 2025Article
- Neutralizing antibody responses over time in a demographically and clinically diverse cohort of individuals recovered from SARS-CoV-2 acquisition in Africa: A cohort study.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Who to Boost When: The Effect of Age and Dosing Interval on Delta and Omicron COVID-19 Incidence in the Open-label Phase of the COVE Trial.Open forum infectious diseases · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
43 authors.
Funding
Abstract
In the phase 3 Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE) trial (NCT04470427), post-dose two Ancestral Spike-specific binding (bAb) and neutralizing (nAb) antibodies were shown to be correlates of risk (CoR) and of protection against Ancestral-lineage COVID-19 in SARS-CoV-2 naive participants. In the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron era, Omicron subvariants with varying degrees of immune escape now dominate, seropositivity rates are high, and booster doses are administered, raising questions on whether and how these developments affect the bAb and nAb correlates. To address these questions, we assess post-boost BA.1 Spike-specific bAbs and nAbs as CoRs and as correlates of booster efficacy in COVE. For naive individuals, bAbs and nAbs inversely correlate with Omicron COVID-19: hazard ratios (HR) per 10-fold marker increase (95% confidence interval) are 0.16 (0.03, 0.79) and 0.31 (0.10, 0.96), respectively. In non-naive individuals the analogous results are similar: 0.15 (0.04, 0.63) and 0.28 (0.07, 1.08). For naive individuals, three vs two-dose booster efficacy correlates with predicted nAb titer at exposure, with estimates -8% (-126%, 48%), 50% (25%, 67%), and 74% (49%, 87%), at 56, 251, and 891 Arbitrary Units/ml. These results support the continued use of antibody as a surrogate endpoint.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.