Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39260880›Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2024

Effectiveness of modified vaccinia Ankara-Bavarian Nordic vaccine against mpox infection: emulation of a target trial.

Christine Navarro, Cindy Lau, Sarah A Buchan, Ann N Burchell, Sharifa Nasreen, Lindsay Friedman, Evaezi Okpokoro, Peter C Austin, Darrell H S Tan, Jonathan B Gubbay and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Mpox (Monkeypox) in Pregnancy Updates.Health science reports · 2026
    Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Current advances and challenges in mpox vaccine development: a global landscape.Therapeutic advances in vaccines and immunotherapy · 2025
    Review
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Christine NavarroPublic Health Ontario, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Cindy LauICES, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Sarah A BuchanPublic Health Ontario, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Ann N BurchellDalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Sharifa NasreenDalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Lindsay FriedmanPublic Health Ontario, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Evaezi OkpokoroInternational Research Centre of Excellence, Institute of Human Virology Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria.
Peter C AustinICES, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Darrell H S TanMAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Jonathan B GubbayPublic Health Ontario, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Jeffrey C KwongPublic Health Ontario, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Sharmistha MishraDalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada sharmistha.mishra@utoronto.ca.ORCID 0000-0001-8492-5470
Canadian Immunization Research Network Provincial Collaborative Network Investigators

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo estimate the real world effectiveness of modified vaccinia Ankara-Bavarian Nordic (MVA-BN) vaccine against mpox infection.

designEmulation of a target trial.

settingLinked databases in Ontario, Canada.

participants9803 men aged ≥18 years with a history of being tested for syphilis and a laboratory confirmed bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the previous year, or who filled a prescription for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in the previous year. On each day between 12 June 2022 and 27 October 2022, those who had been vaccinated 15 days previously were matched 1:1 with unvaccinated men by age, geographical region, past HIV diagnosis, number of bacterial STI diagnoses in the previous three years, and receipt of any non-MVA-BN vaccine in the previous year.

main outcome measureThe main outcome measure was vaccine effectiveness ((1-hazard ratio)×100) of one dose of subcutaneously administered MVA-BN against laboratory confirmed mpox infection. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratios to compare the rate of laboratory confirmed mpox between the two groups.

results3204 men who received the vaccine were matched to 3204 unvaccinated controls. A total of 71 mpox infections were diagnosed, with 0.09 per 1000 person days (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.05 to 0.13) in the vaccinated group and 0.20 per 1000 person days (0.15 to 0.27) in the unvaccinated group over the study period of 153 days. Estimated vaccine effectiveness of one dose of MVA-BN against mpox infection was 58% (95% CI 31% to 75%).

conclusionThe findings of this study, conducted in the context of a targeted vaccination programme and evolving outbreak of mpox, suggest that one dose of MVA-BN is moderately effective in preventing mpox infection.

Indexed as

Mpox, MonkeypoxSmallpox VaccineVaccine EfficacyAdolescentAdultHumansMaleMiddle AgedOntarioProportional Hazards ModelsYoung AdultSmallpox Vaccine

Identifiers

PMID39260880
PMCPMC11388114

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.