Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39255234›Full record

ArticleEmerging infectious diseases2024

Epidemiologic Quantities for Monkeypox Virus Clade I from Historical Data with Implications for Current Outbreaks, Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Valentina Marziano, Giorgio Guzzetta, Ira Longini, Stefano Merler

Abstract readHistorical Article
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Emerging infectious diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  4. Review
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  6. Preventing Disease Emergence Following Eradication: Application to Mpox.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Valentina Marziano
Giorgio Guzzetta
Ira Longini
Stefano Merler

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We used published data from outbreak investigations of monkeypox virus clade I in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to estimate the distributions of critical epidemiological parameters. We estimated a mean incubation period of 9.9 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 8.5-11.5 days) and a mean generation time of 17.2 days (95% CrI 14.1-20.9 days) or 11.3 days (95% CrI 9.4-14.0 days), depending on the considered dataset. Presymptomatic transmission was limited. Those estimates suggest generally slower transmission dynamics in clade I than in clade IIb. The time-varying reproduction number for clade I in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was estimated to be below the epidemic threshold in the first half of 2024. However, in the South Kivu Province, where the newly identified subclade Ib has been associated with sustained human-to-human transmission, we estimated an effective reproduction number above the epidemic threshold (95% CrI 0.96-1.27).

Indexed as

Disease OutbreaksMonkeypox virusMpox, MonkeypoxDemocratic Republic of the CongoHistory, 21st CenturyHumansPhylogenyDemocratic Republic of the Congogeneration timeincubation periodmonkeypox virusmpoxmpox clade Ireproduction numberserial intervalsexually transmitted infectionsviruseszoonoses

Identifiers

PMID39255234
PMCPMC11431919

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.