ArticleBMC public health2024
Trends of older gastric cancer incidence, mortality, and survival in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China: 2010-2019 and prediction to 2024.
Article in BMC public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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8 citing papers in PubMed.
- RYK silencing-modified bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells suppress gastric cancer progression.In vitro cellular & developmental biology. Animal · 2026Article
- Review
- Population ageing and gastric cancer mortality burden in China, 2008-2021: a nationwide analysis with projections to 2036.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- CPZ promotes the proliferation of gastric cancer by activating the Wnt pathway through binding with DVL2.Discover oncology · 2025Article
- Trends in Stomach Cancer Burden in China: A Joinpoint and APC Analysis Based on GBD 2021.Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2025Article
- Hp eradication decreased the expression level of PG II in patients of Hp negative with gastric intestinal metaplasia: a retrospective cross-sectional study.Journal of health, population, and nutrition · 2025Article
- Comparing the trends of cancer burden attributed to high BMI in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, with multi-model prediction to 2036.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Development and validation of a machine learning model to predict postoperative complications following radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer.Frontiers in oncology · 2025Article
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15 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundGastric cancer is a major health problem worldwide, with a high incidence among older adults. Given the aging overall population, it was crucial to understand the current burden and prospective trend of older gastric cancer. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends of the incidence, mortality, and survival of older gastric cancer in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China from 2010 to 2019, and to predict the future burden of older gastric cancer up to 2024.
methodsThe study was conducted in Gansu province, an area characterized by the highest gastric cancer incidence and mortality in China. The registration data of gastric cancer incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2019 were pooled from registries in the Gansu Cancer Registration System, while survival data were collected from the First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, and Gansu Cancer Hospital. Chinese standard population in 2000 and the Segi's world standard population were applied to calculate the age-standardized rate. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in cancer incidence and mortality. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were employed to generate forecasts for incidence and mortality from 2020 to 2024.
resultsBased on registry data from 2010 to 2019, the incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer among older adults remained stable. The incidence rates declined from 439.65 per 100,000 in 2010 to 330.40 per 100,000 in 2019, with an AAPC of -2.59% (95% confidence interval[CI], -5.14 to 0.04, P = 0.06). Similarly, the mortality rate changed from 366.98 per 100,000 in 2010 to 262.03 per 100,000 in 2019, with an AAPC of -2.55% (95% CI, -8.77-4.08%, P = 0.44). In the hospital-based cohort, the decline in survival rates was reported among older patients with gastric cancer in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China, with the 3-year overall survival (OS) decreasing from 58.5% (95% CI, 53.5-63.2%) in 2010 to 34.4% (95%CI, 32.1-36.7%) in 2019, and the 3-year progression-free survival (PFS) decreasing from 51.3% (95%CI, 47.5-55.1%) in 2010 to 34.2% (95%CI, 32.0-36.3%) in 2019, respectively. Moreover, forecasts generated by ARIMA models revealed a significant decline in the incidence and mortality of older gastric cancer in China from 2020 to 2024. Specifically, the incidence rate of older gastric cancer was expected to decrease from 317.94 per 100,000 population in 2020 to 205.59 per 100,000 population in 2024, while the anticipated mortality rate was estimated to decrease from 222.52 per 100,000 population in 2020 to 186.22 per 100,000 population in 2024.
conclusionFrom 2010 to 2019, the incidence and mortality of older gastric cancer remained stable in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China, while the survival rates showed a decline. Based on the ARIMA models, it was anticipated that there might be a continued decline in older gastric cancer incidence and mortality in the highest-risk area in China over the next five years.
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