Neighborhood Racial and Ethnic Predominance, Child Opportunity, and Violence-Related Mortality among Children and Adolescents in Chicago.

Our objective was to determine whether Child Opportunity Index (COI), a measure of neighborhood socioeconomic and built environment specific to children, mediated the relationship of census tract Black or Hispanic predominance with increased rates of census tract violence-related mortality. The hypothesis was that COI would partially mediate the relationship. This cross-sectional study combined data from the American Community Survey 5-year estimates, the COI 2.0, and the Illinois Violent Death Reporting System 2015-2019 for the City of Chicago. Individuals ages 0-19 years were included. The primary exposure was census tract Black, Hispanic, White, and other race predominance (> 50% of population). The primary outcome was census tract violence-related mortality. A mediation analysis was performed to evaluate the role of COI as a potential mediator. Multivariable logistic regression modeling census tract violence-related mortality demonstrated a direct effect of census tract Black predominance (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.30-5.14) on violence-related mortality compared to White predominance. There was no association of census tract Hispanic predominance with violence-related mortality compared to White predominance (aOR 1.57, 95% CI 0.88-2.84). Approximately 64.9% (95% CI 60.2-80.0%) of the effect of census tract Black predominance and 67.9% (95% CI 61.2-200%) of the effect of census tract Hispanic predominance on violence-related mortality was indirect via COI. COI partially mediated the effect of census tract Black and Hispanic predominance on census tract violence-related mortality. Interventions that target neighborhood social and economic factors should be considered to reduce violence-related mortality among children and adolescents.