Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39245462›Full record

ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute2025

Long-term survival across Breslow thickness categories: findings from a population-based study of 210 042 Australian melanoma patients.

Serigne N Lo, Gabrielle J Williams, Anne E Cust, Alexander H R Varey, Sydney Ch'ng, Richard A Scolyer, John F Thompson

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Non-invasive Imaging Modalities for Breslow Thickness Estimation in Melanoma: A Scoping Review.Skin research and technology : official journal of International Society for Bioengineering and the Skin (ISBS) [and] International Society for Digital Imaging of Skin (ISDIS) [and] International Society for Skin Imaging (ISSI) · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Serigne N LoMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales (NSW), Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-5092-5544
Gabrielle J WilliamsMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales (NSW), Australia.
Anne E CustMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales (NSW), Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-5331-6370
Alexander H R VareyMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales (NSW), Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-7665-8015
Sydney Ch'ngMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales (NSW), Australia.
Richard A ScolyerMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales (NSW), Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-8991-0013
John F ThompsonMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales (NSW), Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-2816-2496

Funding

Melanoma Institute AustraliaNational Health and Medical Research Council 2022/GNT2018514NHMRC 2008454
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The prognosis of a patient with a primary cutaneous melanoma is known to be related to the Breslow thickness of their tumor. This study sought to determine long-term (30-year) survival rates for the 4 American Joint Committee on Cancer 8th edition T categories by analyzing Australian registry data for 210 042 melanoma patients diagnosed from 1982 to 2014. The 30-year incidence rates of death due to melanoma and nonmelanoma (with 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were 7.1% (95% CI = 6.9% to 7.3%) and 32.8% (95% CI = 32.3% to 33.3%), respectively. For T2 melanomas, the corresponding rates were 21.6% (95% CI = 21.0% to 22.3%) and 35.6% (95% CI = 34.7% to 36.6%), for T3 melanomas 34.2% (95% CI = 33.4% to 35.1%) and 39.6% (95% CI = 38.5% to 40.8%), and for T4 melanomas 44.3% (95% CI = 43.2% to 45.3%) and 39.6% (95% CI = 38.3% to 41.0%). A plateau in melanoma-related deaths occurred in T4 patients after 20 years, but there were ongoing melanoma-related deaths for the other T categories beyond 30 years. A progressive rise in the risk of death from other causes occurred across all T categories.

Indexed as

MelanomaRegistriesSkin NeoplasmsAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAustraliaCutaneous Malignant MelanomaFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasm StagingPrognosis

Identifiers

PMID39245462
PMCPMC11717414

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.