Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39244563›Full record

ArticleNature communications2024

Smoking and alcohol by HPV status in head and neck cancer: a Mendelian randomization study.

Abhinav Thakral, John Jw Lee, Tianzhichao Hou, Katrina Hueniken, Tom Dudding, Mark Gormley, Shama Virani, Andrew Olshan, Brenda Diergaarde, Andrew R Ness and 31 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Diagnostic work-up strategies impact on head and neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (SCC) of unknown primary survival: a national multicentric retrospective analysis.European archives of oto-rhino-laryngology : official journal of the European Federation of Oto-Rhino-Laryngological Societies (EUFOS) : affiliated with the German Society for Oto-Rhino-Laryngology - Head and Neck Surgery · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

41 authors.

Abhinav Thakral *Department of Biostatistics, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre-University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
John Jw Lee *Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Jongwook.lee@utoronto.ca.ORCID 0000-0002-3364-9960
Tianzhichao HouDepartment of Biostatistics, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre-University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Katrina HuenikenDepartment of Biostatistics, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre-University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Tom DuddingMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TL, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3756-040X
Mark GormleyMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TL, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5733-6304
Shama ViraniGenomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France.ORCID 0000-0002-1163-432X
Andrew OlshanDepartment of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.
Brenda DiergaardeDepartment of Human Genetics, School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, and UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, PA, 15260, USA.
Andrew R NessUniversity Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust National Institute for Health Research Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS1 3NU, UK.
Tim WaterboerInfections and Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-0616-6963
Karl Smith-ByrneGenomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France.ORCID 0000-0002-1932-7463
Paul BrennanGenomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France.
D Neil HayesDivision of Medical Oncology and Center for Cancer Research, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6203-7771
Eleanor SandersonMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TL, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5188-5775
M Catherine BrownPrincess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.ORCID 0000-0003-0184-7732
Sophie HuangPrincess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Scott V BratmanPrincess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Anna SpreaficoPrincess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-3034-3042
John De AlmeidaDepartment of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Joel C DaviesDepartment of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Laura BierutDepartment of Psychiatry, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9952-4810
Gary J MacfarlaneEpidemiology Group, School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.
Pagona LagiouDepartment of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian, University of Athens, Goudi, Greece.
Areti LagiouDepartment of Public and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of West Attica, Athens, Greece.
Jerry PoleselUnit of Cancer Epidemiology, Centro di Riferimento Oncologico di Aviano (CRO) IRCCS, Aviano, Italy.ORCID 0000-0001-9381-1520
Antonio AgudoCancer Epidemiology Research Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain.
Laia AlemanyCancer Epidemiology Research Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain.
Wolfgang AhrensDepartment of Epidemiological Methods and Etiological Research, Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology-BIPS, Bremen, Germany; Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-3777-570X
Claire M HealyDepartment of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Oral Medicine and Oral Pathology, Dublin Dental University Hospital, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
David I ConwaySchool of Medicine, Dentistry, and Nursing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Mari NygardDepartment of Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
Cristina CanovaUniversity of Padua, Padova, Italy.
Ivana HolcatovaInstitute of Hygiene & Epidemiology, 1st Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic.ORCID 0000-0002-1366-0337
Lorenzo RichiardiDepartment of Medical Sciences, University of Turin and CPO-Piemonte, Turin, Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-0316-9402
Ariana ZnaorCancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France.
David P GoldsteinDepartment of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-9390-7928
Rayjean J HungProsserman Centre for Population Health Research, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health, Toronto, Canada.
Wei XuDepartment of Biostatistics, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre-University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Geoffrey LiuInfections and Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany. Geoffrey.Liu@uhn.ca.
Osvaldo Espin-GarciaDepartment of Biostatistics, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre-University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.ORCID 0000-0003-2052-2626

Funding

VECTOR CORE FACILITYP30CA047904 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI CHRISTOPHER J. BAKKENIST · 1988 to 2026
$158.0M
WILD TYPE P53-BASED ADJUVANT IMMUNOTHERAPY FOR SCCHNP50CA097190 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI Heath Devin Skinner · 2004 to 2026
$49.6M
UNC-CH CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH &SUSCEPTIBILITYP30ES010126 · NIEHS · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI Hazel B Nichols · 2001 to 2026
$36.3M
Gene Environment Interaction in Head and Neck CancerR01CA090731 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI OLSHAN, ANDREW · 2001 to 2005
$4.6M
The role of germline and somatic DNA mutations in oral and oropharyngeal cancersR01DE025712 · NIDCR · INTERNATIONAL AGENCY FOR RES ON CANCER · PI BRENNAN, PAUL JOSEPH, DIERGAARDE, BRENDA B. · 2017 to 2021
$3.3M
Cancer Research UK C18281/A19169NCI NIH HHS P30 CA047904NCI NIH HHS P50 CA097190NCI NIH HHS R01 CA090731NIDCR NIH HHS R01 DE025712NIEHS NIH HHS P30 ES010126World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

HPV-positive and HPV-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) are recognized as distinct entities. There remains uncertainty surrounding the causal effects of smoking and alcohol on the development of these two cancer types. Here we perform multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) to evaluate the causal effects of smoking and alcohol on the risk of HPV-positive and HPV-negative HNSCC in 3431 cases and 3469 controls. Lifetime smoking exposure, as measured by the Comprehensive Smoking Index (CSI), is associated with increased risk of both HPV-negative HNSCC (OR = 3.03, 95%CI:1.75-5.24, P = 7.00E-05) and HPV-positive HNSCC (OR = 2.73, 95%CI:1.39-5.36, P = 0.003). Drinks Per Week is also linked with increased risk of both HPV-negative HNSCC (OR = 7.72, 95%CI:3.63-16.4, P = 1.00E-07) and HPV-positive HNSCC (OR = 2.66, 95%CI:1.06-6.68, P = 0.038). Smoking and alcohol independently increase the risk of both HPV-positive and HPV-negative HNSCC. These findings have important implications for understanding the modifying risk factors between HNSCC subtypes.

Indexed as

Alcohol DrinkingHead and Neck NeoplasmsMendelian Randomization AnalysisPapillomavirus InfectionsSmokingSquamous Cell Carcinoma of Head and NeckCase-Control StudiesFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPapillomaviridaePolymorphism, Single NucleotideRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID39244563
PMCPMC11380676

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.