ArticlePloS one2024
A state-level history of opioid overdose deaths in the United States: 1999-2021.
Article in PloS one, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
What it found
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Development of attenuated and inactivated Dengue strains using advanced gene editing tools.Molecular biology reports · 2026Review
- Applying the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) to understand college health administrator perceptions on adopting and implementing opioid overdose education and naloxone distribution (OEND) programs among universities nationally.Harm reduction journal · 2026Article
- Developing and Validating a Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict the Risk of Incident Opioid Use Disorder Among OneFlorida+ Patients: Prognostic Modeling Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2026Article
- Indole Alkaloids as Biased Opioid Receptor Modulators.Pharmaceuticals (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- External Validation of Epic's Risk of Opioid Abuse and Overdose Model Among Primary Care Patients in Three Health Systems.Journal of general internal medicine · 2026Article
- Methadone and morphine have equivalent analgesic but not reward potency in female mice.Addiction neuroscience · 2025Article
- Enhancing Naloxone Distribution for Opioid Users in the USA: A Cost-Utility Analysis of Academic Detailing to Clinicians.Applied health economics and health policy · 2025Article
- Article
- Harm reduction self-efficacy and motivations for contactless supply access among a sample of syringe services program participants.Harm reduction journal · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
We examined a natural history of opioid overdose deaths from 1999-2021 in the United States to describe state-level spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the waves of the epidemic. We obtained overdose death counts by state from 1999-2021, categorized as involving prescription opioids, heroin, synthetic opioids, or unspecified drugs. We developed a Bayesian multivariate multiple change point model to flexibly estimate the timing and magnitude of state-specific changes in death rates involving each drug type. We found substantial variability around the timing and severity of each wave across states. The first wave of prescription-involved deaths started between 1999 and 2005, the second wave of heroin-involved deaths started between 2010 and 2014, and the third wave of synthetic opioid-involved deaths started between 2014 and 2021. The severity of the second and third waves was greater in states in the eastern half of the country. Our study highlights state-level variation in the timing and severity of the waves of the opioid epidemic by presenting a 23-year natural history of opioid overdose mortality in the United States. While reinforcing the general notion of three waves, we find that states did not uniformly experience the impacts of each wave.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.