Is a history of episodic low back pain an indicator of Modic changes?

Background: Prior work demonstrated that a history of episodic low back pain was highly indicative of discogenic pain. Recently, there has been more focus on vertebrogenic pain, however little is known about the clinical features of this condition. Purpose: To determine if a history of severe episodic low back pain correlates with Modic endplate changes on lumbar spine magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), presumed to be a marker of vertebrogenic pain. Study design: /setting: Retrospective, observational, in vivo study of consecutive patients at outpatient Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation clinics at a single academic spine center. Patient sample: Consecutive patients who received a lumbar spine MRI between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020. Methods: A retrospective chart review identified patients who received a lumbar spine MRI in 2020. Chart review then determined if patients had a history of episodes of low back pain lasting at least 2 days, or if they had non-episodic low back pain (pain beginning with a gradual onset or after a specific event with continuous symptoms for >3 months). Patients were excluded if they had prior lumbar spine surgery, radicular leg pain without low back pain, indeterminate presentations based on chart review, acute spine fractures, or metastatic spine lesions. For the primary analysis, the MRIs were reviewed and were dichotomized into positive (having for either type 1 or type 2 Modic changes at any level) or negative (no Modic changes at any level). Results: A total of 111 patients were analyzed. Inter-rater reliability for determining whether a patient's low back pain was episodic was strong (kappa ​= ​0.83), as was inter-rater reliability for determining if a patient had any levels with type 1 or type 2 Modic changes (kappa ​= ​0.81). Seventy-one out of 111 patients had type 1 and/or type 2 Modic changes at one or more spinal levels. The sensitivity of the test (episodic vs non-episodic low back pain) in finding patients with Modic changes was 20% and the specificity was 70%. The diagnostic confidence odds were 1.2, with a diagnostic confidence of 55%. Subgroup analyses for type 1 Modic changes, and for type 2 Modic changes, showed similar values. Conclusions: A history of episodic low back pain is not a strong indicator for a vertebrogenic etiology.