ArticleFrontiers in public health2024
Increasing situational awareness through nowcasting of the reproduction number.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Robust estimation of the time-dependent reproduction number in the presence of weekend reporting effects.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
- Baseline nowcasting methods for handling delays in epidemiological data.Wellcome open research · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
18 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: The time-varying reproduction number R is a critical variable for situational awareness during infectious disease outbreaks; however, delays between infection and reporting of cases hinder its accurate estimation in real-time. A number of nowcasting methods, leveraging available information on data consolidation delays, have been proposed to mitigate this problem. Methods: In this work, we retrospectively validate the use of a nowcasting algorithm during 18 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy by quantitatively assessing its performance against standard methods for the estimation of R. Results: Nowcasting significantly reduced the median lag in the estimation of R from 13 to 8 days, while concurrently enhancing accuracy. Furthermore, it allowed the detection of periods of epidemic growth with a lead of between 6 and 23 days. Conclusions: Nowcasting augments epidemic awareness, empowering better informed public health responses.
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