Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39233083›Full record

ArticleThe Science of the total environment2024

The heat-mortality association in Jordan: Effect modification by greenness, population density and urbanization level.

L Luque-García, S Bataineh, J Al-Bakri, F A Abdulla, W K Al-Delaimy

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In one paragraph

Article in The Science of the total environment, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

L Luque-GarcíaDepartment of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Leioa 48940, Spain; Biogipuzkoa Health Research Institute, Group of Environmental Epidemiology and Child Development, Paseo Doctor Begiristain s/n, 20014 Donostia-San Sebastián, Spain; Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Goierri Alto-Urola Integrated Health Organisation, Zumarraga Hospital, Zumarraga 20700, Spain.
S BatainehCivil Engineering Department, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid 22110, Jordan.
J Al-BakriDepartment of Land, Water and Environment, School of Agriculture, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942, Jordan.
F A AbdullaCivil Engineering Department, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid 22110, Jordan.
W K Al-DelaimyHerbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States. Electronic address: waldelaimy@health.ucsd.edu.

Funding

Global Center on Climate Change and Water Energy Food Health Systems - Research ProjectP20TW012709 · FIC · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI AL-DELAIMY, WAEL K · 2023 to 2024
$4.0M
2/2 GeoHealth Hub on Environmental Exposure and Health in the Arab Region-U.SU2RTW012228 · FIC · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI WAEL K AL-DELAIMY · 2022 to 2026
$1.7M
The GeoHealth Hub on Environmental Exposure and Health in the Arab regionU01TW012237 · FIC · JORDAN UNIVERSITY/SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY · PI WAEL K AL-DELAIMY, Fayez Ahmad Abdulla · 2022 to 2026
$1.4M
FIC NIH HHS P20 TW012709FIC NIH HHS U01 TW012237FIC NIH HHS U2R TW012228
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe Middle East is one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change, yet evidence of the heat-related mortality remains limited in this area. Our present study investigated the heat-mortality association in Jordan and the potential modifying effect of greenness, population density and urbanization level on the association.

methodsFor each of the 42 included districts, daily meteorological and mortality data from 2000 to 2020 were obtained for the warmest months (May to September). First, a distributed lag non-linear model was applied to estimate the district level heat-mortality association, then the district specific estimates were pooled using multivariate meta-regression models to obtain an overall estimate. Last, the modifying effect of district level greenness, population density and urbanization level was examined through subgroup analysis.

resultsWhen compared to the minimum mortality temperature (MMT, percentile 0th, 22.20 °C), the 99th temperature percentile exhibited a relative risk (RR) of 1.34 (95 % CI 1.23, 1.45). Districts with low greenness had a higher heat-mortality risk (RR 1.39, 95 % CI 1.22, 1.58) when compared to the high greenness (RR 1.28, 95 % CI 1.13, 1.45). While heat-mortality risk did not significantly differ between population density subgroups, highly urbanized districts had a greater heat-mortality risk (RR 1.41, 95 % CI 1.23, 1.62) as compared to ones with low levels of urbanization (RR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.13, 1.55). Districts with high urbanization level had the highest heat-mortality risk if they were further categorized as having low greenness (RR 1.63, 95 % CI 1.30, 2.04).

conclusionExposure to heat was associated with increased mortality risk in Jordan. This risk was higher in districts with low greenness and high urbanization level. As climate change-related heat mortality will be on the rise, early warning systems in highly vulnerable communities in Jordan are required and greening initiatives should be pursued.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeHot TemperaturePopulation DensityUrbanizationHumansJordanMortalityExtreme heatGreen spaceMortalityPopulation densityTemperatureUrbanization

Identifiers

PMID39233083
PMCPMC13377650

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.