Modeling the Effects of Policies that Restrict Tobacco Retail Outlets on Prenatal Smoke Exposure and Perinatal Health Care Utilization.

Tobacco retail outlet (TRO) density has been associated with increased cotinine levels in pregnant persons and their children. As such, the higher densities of TROs may represent higher levels of active smoking during pregnancy. The purpose of this study is to simulate the reduction in cotinine (a biomarker of smoke exposure) and health care utilization that could occur in pregnant persons under enactment of several candidate TRO reduction policy recommendations. Using existing retail outlet data from the state of North Carolina and from the Newborn Epigenetic Study (NEST), the present study created hypothetical policy-informed datasets of TROs that a) limited the number of TROs to the same density as the 2014 San Francisco (SF) policy (Policy 1), b) set the minimum distance to 500 feet between TROs from a school and from other TROs (Policy 2), c) restricted the types of TROs to exclude pharmacies (Policy 3), and d) a combination of Policies 1-3 (Policy 4). We estimated the effects of each policy individually and in a separate model with their combined effects in terms of the reduction on cotinine levels and health care utilization, as measured by number of visits to the emergency department (ED). We found that the hypothetical policies were likely to be effective in reducing maternal cotinine and ED visits, with the majority of the mothers in the dataset demonstrating reductions in these outcomes after implementation of the policies. We found that Policy 1 led to moderate reductions in TRO exposure for the majority of the sample as well as stratified by race/ethnicity. Additionally, Policy 4 had slightly larger estimated effects than Policy 1, but could be more onerous to implement in practice. Overall, we identified evidence supporting the efficacy of TRO reduction strategies that could impact smoke exposure during pregnancy in our diverse sample in North Carolina.