Derivation of Indices of Cognitive Change Among Hispanic Adults and Elders.

Importance: Determining the influence of race and ethnicity on change in cognitive test performance has significant implications for clinical practice and research in populations at risk for Alzheimer disease. Objective: To evaluate the significance of race and ethnicity in predicting longitudinal cognitive test performance and to develop models to support evidence-based practice. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study included baseline and 24-month follow-up data that were obtained from the Health and Aging Brain Study-Health Disparities (HABS-HD) study, an ongoing longitudinal observational study of aging and dementia in a multiracial, multiethnic cohort. Participants included community-dwelling adults and elders living in the Dallas and Fort Worth metropolitan area who were Hispanic and non-Hispanic adults older than the age of 50 years and were cognitively unimpaired. Exposure: The primary exposure of interest was time, measured in months. Main Outcomes and Measures: Demographic variables included age, sex, education, and race and ethnicity. Cognitive domains included attention and working memory, processing speed, language, memory, and executive functioning. Linear regression models predicted follow-up performance from baseline performance and demographic variables for 13 commonly used neuropsychological tests. Follow-up testing was the primary outcome for all domains. Raw scores from 13 standardized tests were used for analyses. Results: This study included 799 adults who were cognitively unimpaired (352 Hispanic individuals [44.1%]; 447 non-Hispanic individuals [55.9%]; 524 female [65.6%]; mean [SD] age, 65.4 [8.1] years). In the regression models, all 13 follow-up scores were significantly predicted from their respective baseline scores and demographic variables. Baseline performance and education were the most consistent predictors of follow-up scores, contributing to all 13 models. Age was significantly associated with follow-up in 11 models, and sex was significant in 5 models. Race and ethnicity contributed to 10 of 13 models, with Hispanic participants predicted to have poorer follow-up scores than their non-Hispanic White counterparts on each test. Conclusions and Relevance: In this longitudinal study of cognitive change in Hispanic and non-Hispanic older adults who were cognitively unimpaired, standardized regression-based models were influenced by multiple demographic variables, including race and ethnicity. These findings highlight the importance of including race and ethnicity in such cognitive change models. This ability to accurately predict cognitive change is expected to become increasingly important as clinical practice and clinical trials need to become more diverse and culturally appropriate in this burgeoning global medical and societal crisis.