Determinants of trajectories of informal caregiving in later life: evidence from England.

Although the long-term consequences of informal care provision have been well investigated, few studies have examined the trajectories of informal care provision among older people and the socioeconomic, demographic, health, and family characteristics associated with them. We use data from four waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, with 6561 respondents followed for 6 years (2012/3-2018/9). We used group-based trajectory modelling to group people's provision of care over time into a finite number of distinct trajectories of caregiving. Using multinomial logistic regressions, we then investigated the characteristics associated with these trajectories. Four distinct trajectories of caregiving were identified: "stable intensive", "increasing intensive", "decreasing", and "stable no care". Results suggest that although there are socioeconomic, demographic, and health differences across the trajectories of caregiving (with younger women in good health and poorer socioeconomic status more likely to care intensively throughout), family characteristics are their main drivers. Respondents who live alone, with no children, and no parents alive are more likely to never provide care, whereas those with older parents and who live with adults in poor health are more likely to provide stable intensive care. Also, changes in family characteristics (e.g. death of parents, widowhood, or deterioration of the partner's health) are associated with trajectories representing increases or decreases in caregiving over time. Overall, trajectories of informal caregiving undertaken by older people are varied and these patterns are mostly associated with both the availability and health of family members, suggesting that need factors represent the most immediate reason for caregiving commitments.