Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39212787›Full record

ArticleGeroScience2025

Do people reach 100 by surviving, delaying, or avoiding diseases? A life course comparison of centenarians and non-centenarians from the same birth cohorts.

Yuge Zhang, Shunsuke Murata, Katharina Schmidt-Mende, Marcus Ebeling, Karin Modig

Abstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in GeroScience, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. The long-lived immune system of centenarians.Nature reviews. Immunology · 2026
    Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Observational
  11. Machine learning prediction of survival in centenarians after age 100: a retrospective, population-based cohort study.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2025
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Yuge ZhangUnit of Epidemiology, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Box 210, 17177, Stockholm, Sweden. yuge.zhang@ki.se.ORCID 0000-0001-9756-3050
Shunsuke MurataUnit of Epidemiology, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Box 210, 17177, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-1670-020X
Katharina Schmidt-MendeAcademic Primary Health Care Centre, Stockholm Region, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0003-0446-8930
Marcus EbelingUnit of Epidemiology, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Box 210, 17177, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-6531-8525
Karin ModigUnit of Epidemiology, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Box 210, 17177, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-5151-4867

Funding

Karolinska Institutet KID
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Centenarians are perceived as pioneers of longevity, possessing the secrets to surpassing age 100. It remains unclear whether they achieve this by surviving, delaying, or avoiding diseases to a greater extent than their shorter-lived peers. This register-based study encompassed all individuals aged 60 and older, born between 1912 and 1922 in Stockholm County, Sweden (N = 170,787). Using historical data, individuals were prospectively followed from 1972 to 2022 and stratified by their age at death. Age-specific incidence rates and remaining lifetime risk from age 60 were calculated for stroke, myocardial infarction, hip fracture, and various cancers (including colorectal, breast, and prostate), and compared between those who survived to age 100 and their shorter-lived counterparts. Centenarians had lower age-specific incidence rates for almost all diseases and ages. Despite longer life spans, their lifetime risks for all diseases except hip fracture were lower than those of non-centenarians. This suggests that centenarians delay, and even avoid, many of the major age-related diseases rather than surviving them to a higher extent. The findings that centenarians not only exhibit lower disease rates at younger ages compared to their shorter-lived peers but throughout their lives challenge the notion that longer life span inevitably leads to higher disease rates or a simple shift of diseases to older ages.

Indexed as

Life ExpectancyLongevityAgedAged, 80 and overBirth CohortFemaleHip FracturesHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasmsProspective StudiesRegistriesSwedenAge-specific incidence rateBirth cohortCentenariansLifetime riskLongevity

Identifiers

PMID39212787
PMCPMC12181509

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.