A New Approach for Understanding International Hospital Bed Numbers and Application to Local Area Bed Demand and Capacity Planning.

Three models/methods are given to understand the extreme international variation in available and occupied hospital bed numbers. These models/methods all rely on readily available data. In the first, occupied beds (rather than available beds) are used to measure the expressed demand for hospital beds. The expressed occupied bed demand for three countries was in the order Australia > England > USA. Next, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) has dual functions. Less developed countries/regions have low access to healthcare, which results in high ASMR, or a negative slope between ASMR versus available/occupied beds. In the more developed countries, high ASMR can also be used to measure the 'need' for healthcare (including occupied beds), a positive slope among various social (wealth/lifestyle) groups, which will include Indigenous peoples. In England, a 100-unit increase in ASMR (European Standard population) leads to a 15.3-30.7 (feasible range) unit increase in occupied beds per 1000 deaths. Higher ASMR shows why the Australian states of the Northern Territory and Tasmania have an intrinsic higher bed demand. The USA has a high relative ASMR (for a developed/wealthy country) because healthcare is not universal in the widest sense. Lastly, a method for benchmarking the whole hospital's average bed occupancy which enables them to run at optimum efficiency and safety. English hospitals operate at highly disruptive and unsafe levels of bed occupancy, manifesting as high 'turn-away'. Turn-away implies bed unavailability for the next arriving patient. In the case of occupied beds, the slope of the relationship between occupied beds per 1000 deaths and deaths per 1000 population shows a power law function. Scatter around the trend line arising from year-to-year fluctuations in occupied beds per 1000 deaths, ASMR, deaths per 1000 population, changes in the number of persons hidden in the elective, outpatient and diagnostic waiting lists, and local area variation in births affecting maternity, neonatal, and pediatric bed demand. Additional variation will arise from differences in the level of local funding for social care, especially elderly care. The problems associated with crafting effective bed planning are illustrated using the English NHS as an example.