Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39198710›Full record

ArticleNature medicine2024

Health and economic impacts of Lassa vaccination campaigns in West Africa.

David R M Smith, Joanne Turner, Patrick Fahr, Lauren A Attfield, Paul R Bessell, Christl A Donnelly, Rory Gibb, Kate E Jones, David W Redding, Danny Asogun and 11 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature medicine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. Climate-driven host ecology as a framework for zoonotic disease risk: Understanding transferability across arenavirus systems.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Decoding the human CD4Cell reports. Medicine · 2026
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Article
  18. Review
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

21 authors.

David R M Smith *Nuffield Department of Population Health, Health Economics Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. david.smith@ndph.ox.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7330-4262
Joanne Turner *Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0258-2353
Patrick FahrNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Lauren A AttfieldDepartment of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London, UK.
Paul R BessellIndependent consultant, Edinburgh, UK.
Christl A DonnellyDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0195-2463
Rory GibbDepartment of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London, UK.
Kate E JonesDepartment of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London, UK.
David W ReddingScience Department, The Natural History Museum, London, UK.
Danny AsogunIrrua Specialist Teaching Hospital, Irrua, Nigeria.
Oladele Oluwafemi AyodejiFederal Medical Centre, Owo, Nigeria.
Benedict N AzuoguAlex Ekwueme Federal University Teaching Hospital Abakaliki, Abakaliki, Nigeria.
William A FischerInstitute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4900-098X
Kamji JanNigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Abuja, Nigeria.
Adebola T OlayinkaNigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Abuja, Nigeria.
David A WohlInstitute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Andrew A TorkelsonLinksbridge SPC, Seattle, WA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0009-4126-1374
Katelyn A DinkelLinksbridge SPC, Seattle, WA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0003-1445-8565
Emily J NixonDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Koen B PouwelsNuffield Department of Population Health, Health Economics Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7097-8950
T Déirdre HollingsworthBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Funding

Prevalence, Pathogenesis, and Persistence of Lassa Fever in West AfricaR01AI135105 · NIAID · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI FISCHER, WILLIAM, WOHL, DAVID A · 2018 to 2022
$3.7M
Medical Research Council MR/R02491X/1Medical Research Council MR/R02491X/2MRF_ MRF-160-0017-ELP-POUW-C0909NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI135105Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Lassa fever is a zoonotic disease identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as having pandemic potential. This study estimates the health-economic burden of Lassa fever throughout West Africa and projects impacts of a series of vaccination campaigns. We also model the emergence of 'Lassa-X'-a hypothetical pandemic Lassa virus variant-and project impacts of achieving 100 Days Mission vaccination targets. Our model predicted 2.7 million (95% uncertainty interval: 2.1-3.4 million) Lassa virus infections annually, resulting over 10 years in 2.0 million (793,800-3.9 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The most effective vaccination strategy was a population-wide preventive campaign primarily targeting WHO-classified 'endemic' districts. Under conservative vaccine efficacy assumptions, this campaign averted $20.1 million ($8.2-$39.0 million) in lost DALY value and $128.2 million ($67.2-$231.9 million) in societal costs (2021 international dollars ($)). Reactive vaccination in response to local outbreaks averted just one-tenth the health-economic burden of preventive campaigns. In the event of Lassa-X emerging, spreading throughout West Africa and causing approximately 1.2 million DALYs within 2 years, 100 Days Mission vaccination averted 22% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against disease and 74% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against both infection and disease. These findings suggest how vaccination could alleviate Lassa fever's burden and assist in pandemic preparedness.

Indexed as

Lassa FeverLassa virusVaccinationAdolescentAdultAfrica, WesternChildCost-Benefit AnalysisDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleHumansImmunization ProgramsMaleMiddle AgedPandemicsViral VaccinesViral Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID39198710
PMCPMC11645265

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.