Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39192728›Full record

ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2024

Landscape of fear: indirect effects of conflict can account for large-scale population declines in non-state societies.

Dániel Kondor, James S Bennett, Detlef Gronenborn, Peter Turchin

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Dániel KondorComplexity Science Hub , Vienna, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-3720-7462
James S BennettComplexity Science Hub , Vienna, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-3051-1672
Detlef GronenbornLeibniz-Zentrum für Archäologie (LEIZA) , Mainz, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-6467-5643
Peter TurchinComplexity Science Hub , Vienna, Austria.

Funding

Austrian Research Promotion Agency
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The impact of inter-group conflict on population dynamics has long been debated, especially for prehistoric and non-state societies. In this work, we consider that beyond direct battle casualties, conflicts can also create a 'landscape of fear' in which many non-combatants near theatres of conflict abandon their homes and migrate away. This process causes population decline in the abandoned regions and increased stress on local resources in better-protected areas that are targeted by refugees. By applying analytical and computational modelling, we demonstrate that these indirect effects of conflict are sufficient to produce substantial, long-term population boom-and-bust patterns in non-state societies, such as the case of Mid-Holocene Europe. We also demonstrate that greater availability of defensible locations act to protect and maintain the supply of combatants, increasing the permanence of the landscape of fear and the likelihood of endemic warfare.

Indexed as

FearPopulation DynamicsEuropeHumansModels, TheoreticalRefugeesWarfareagent-based modellingconflictgroup behaviourneolithicpopulation dynamicsprehistory

Identifiers

PMID39192728
PMCPMC11350381

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.