ArticleNature communications2024
Modelling the effectiveness of an isolation strategy for managing mpox outbreaks with variable infectiousness profiles.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- From behavioral to structural correlates: a multi-phase analysis of global reported mpox.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- Viral introductions and return to baseline sexual behaviors maintain low-level mpox incidence in Los Angeles.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Dynamic shift in the dominant transmission route of clade Ib monkeypox virus across networks with sexual and nonsexual contacts.Science advances · 2026Article
- Identifying the optimal rapid antigen test for screening and determining the end of isolation: A modeling study.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- The Emerging Threat of Monkeypox: An Updated Overview.Viruses · 2026Review
- Viral introductions and return to baseline sexual behaviors maintain low-level mpox incidence in Los Angeles County, USA, 2023-2024.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Exploring the epidemiological characteristics of Mpox in the Arab Gulf countries.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Uncovering the impact of infection routes on within-host MPXV dynamics: Insights from a mathematical modeling study.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Monkeypox Virus: WHO's Second Public Health Emergency of International Concern Within 2 Years.Microbial biotechnology · 2025Review
- Modelling the effectiveness of an isolation strategy for managing mpox outbreaks with variable infectiousness profiles.Nature communications · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
16 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The global outbreak of mpox in 2022 and subsequent sporadic outbreaks in 2023 highlighted the importance of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as case isolation. Individual variations in viral shedding dynamics may lead to either premature ending of isolation for infectious individuals, or unnecessarily prolonged isolation for those who are no longer infectious. Here, we developed a modeling framework to characterize heterogeneous mpox infectiousness profiles - specifically, when infected individuals cease to be infectious - based on viral load data. We examined the potential effectiveness of three different isolation rules: a symptom-based rule (the current guideline in many countries) and rules permitting individuals to stop isolating after either a fixed duration or following tests that indicate that they are no longer likely to be infectious. Our analysis suggests that the duration of viral shedding ranges from 23 to 50 days between individuals. The risk of infected individuals ending isolation too early was estimated to be 8.8% (95% CI: 6.7-10.5) after symptom clearance and 5.4% (95% CI: 4.1-6.7) after 3 weeks of isolation. While these results suggest that the current standard practice for ending isolation is effective, we found that unnecessary isolation following the infectious period could be reduced by adopting a testing-based rule.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.