The effect of circulating cytokines on the risk of systemic lupus erythematosus: Mendelian randomization and observational study.

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a complex autoimmune disorder, the etiology of which involves the alterations in circulating cytokine levels. However, the cause-and-effect relationships and in-depth clinical relevance of them remain to be systematically investigated. We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study to assess the causality of circulating cytokine levels and SLE and found that genetically determined elevated CTACK and IL-18 were associated with an increased risk of SLE, whereas a higher level of GRO-a was associated with decreased risk. Furthermore, we performed an observational study to further reveal the association between 27 cytokines and the severity measured by SLEDAI score, as well as lupus nephritis (LN), of SLE. We identified six cytokines (MCP1, MIP1β, CTACK, IP10, HGF, IL18, IL13) that were identified as associated with the clinical severity of SLE, and five cytokines, especially IL18, were related with LN and may have good diagnostic value. Moreover, we also predicted four compounds that might have good binding activities with IL18. The evidence supported a potential causal role of circulating cytokines on the risk of SLE. Targeting IL18 might be a meaningful strategy for the prevention or treatment of SLE, especially in LN patients.