ArticleBMJ open2024
Development and internal validation of a multivariable prognostic model to predict chronic pain after a new episode of non-specific idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain in physiotherapy primary care practice.
Article in BMJ open, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Physical and Psychological Features During Remission From Non-Specific Neck Pain.European journal of pain (London, England) · 2026Article
- Transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) for chronic neck pain.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2026Article
- Observational
- Predicting pain outcomes after digital care in chronic spinal pain: the roles of disability, work impairment, and occupation in a secondary analysis of a prospective clinical study.Pain medicine (Malden, Mass.) · 2026Observational
- Article
- Research status, hotspots and perspectives of artificial intelligence applied to pain management: a bibliometric and visual analysis.Updates in surgery · 2025Article
- First-episode vs recurrent nonspecific neck pain: clinical characteristics, recovery, and the impact of pain severity on well-being and functionality.Pain reports · 2025Article
- The Predictive Value and Influencing Factors of Craniocervical Flexion Test for Patients with Chronic Non-Specific Neck Pain: A Case Control Study.Journal of pain research · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo develop and internally validate a prognostic model to predict chronic pain after a new episode of acute or subacute non-specific idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain in patients presenting to physiotherapy primary care, emphasising modifiable biomedical, psychological and social factors.
designA prospective cohort study with a 6-month follow-up between January 2020 and March 2023.
setting30 physiotherapy primary care practices.
participantsPatients with a new presentation of non-specific idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain, with a duration lasting no longer than 12 weeks from onset. BASELINE MEASURES: Candidate prognostic variables collected from participants included age and sex, neck pain symptoms, work-related factors, general factors, psychological and behavioural factors and the remaining factors: therapeutic relation and healthcare provider attitude. OUTCOME MEASURES: Pain intensity at 6 weeks, 3 months and 6 months on a Numeric Pain Rating Scale (NPRS) after inclusion. An NPRS score of ≥3 at each time point was used to define chronic neck pain.
results62 (10%) of the 603 participants developed chronic neck pain. The prognostic factors in the final model were sex, pain intensity, reported pain in different body regions, headache since and before the neck pain, posture during work, employment status, illness beliefs about pain identity and recovery, treatment beliefs, distress and self-efficacy. The model demonstrated an optimism-corrected area under the curve of 0.83 and a corrected R
conclusionThis model has the potential to obtain a valid prognosis for developing chronic pain after a new episode of acute and subacute non-specific idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain. It includes mostly potentially modifiable factors for physiotherapy practice. External validation of this model is recommended.
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